Back at E3 2019, Microsoft gave the world a glimpse into the next generation of Xbox consoles. Not only did it reveal the Xbox Project Scarlett release window to be Holiday 2020, but it also confirmed a custom AMD processor, new SSD drives, the ability to hit 120 FPS at 8K capability, with a few other rumors circulating about the Scarlett console. This is quadruple the power of the Xbox One X, the self-touted most powerful console currently on the market.
The release of the next-gen Xbox is clearly some time away, with an official release date not likely to drop until some time into next year. Besides the release date, the price of Scarlett, other features, the controller design, and so much more are still being held closely to Microsoft's chest, but there is one thing one can do in terms of release date: look at past patterns. Hopefully, looking at every release in the past will at least pave some way into the future.
Thus, the original Xbox launched on November 15, 2001, a Thursday. The Xbox 360 launched on November 22, 2005, with the slim and elite versions arriving much later and in the summer time. This was a Tuesday. The most recent generation, the Xbox One, will likely shape recent patterns moreso than the others, with the original Xbox One launching on November 22, 2013, and the Xbox One X releasing on November 7, 2017, both of which were Tuesdays. Given that the original Xbox is the odd console out on day of release, that every major release occurred in November, and that most major game releases occur on Tuesday or Friday, a Tuesday in November seems to be the most likely.
This further narrows down the Holiday 2020 release date to either November 3, 10, 17, or 24. There are two major factors to consider to narrow it down further: when the PS5 releases, as history has taught us that Xbox typically launches after Sony, and Black Friday. The latter falls on Friday, November 29, and our prediction of the PS5 release date points toward the likeliness of a November 13 or November 20 release.
Taking this into consideration, it doesn't seem likely that November 24 will be the release date due to its close proximity to Black Friday (it would likely want some time beforehand to cash in on day one sales before Black Friday sales hit), and with PS5 likely releasing toward the middle of the month, it seems likely that November 17, if PS5 falls on November 13, would be a good choice. It's also worth considering November 3 over the other dates, if only because the Xbox One X launched in early November.
While a November release seems to be the most likely, there's another big factor that may actually delay the release of the console: the availability of resources. Recent reports seemingly indicate that Microsoft and Sony are competing to get enough AMD chips for its specific console, which could likely push the next-gen Xbox and/or PS5's release date back into December. This would unfortunately miss the Black Friday season if so, and it's worth mentioning that something could be missing from the equation or changed by the time Holiday 2020 comes around.
The likeliest time that we get confirmation on the Xbox Project Scarlett release date will be E3 2020, though it's not outside a realm of possibility that it comes some time sooner. Either way, fans will just need to wait and see what Xbox is bringing to the table next-gen.