Xbox One X sales could hit 17 million units by 2021, says market research firm DFC Intelligence. The system was the most talked about topic of E3 2017.

In a brief released this week, DFC Intelligence says that Microsoft will sell 17 million Xbox One X consoles by 2021, which will bring the lifetime sales of the console to 63 million. This equates to just over four million Xbox One X units sold each year.

Analyst David Cole points to the console’s price and says that the expensive hardware is “designed to appeal to a fairly narrow demographic of gamers who want high quality graphics but do not want to spend money on a high-end PC.” This results in a “fairly small addressable market” and consumers could turn to the cheaper consoles offered by Sony and Nintendo instead.

project scorpio graphics comparison xbox one
Cole also says that he does not expect that console exclusives will be a factor in terms of overall sales of the hardware. Looking at the list of 130 games that are expected to release for the Xbox One between now and 2018, 25 of these will be console exclusive and many will be released on PC. Cole explains that “many of the exclusives are fairly minor indie titles that will probably not take advantage of the enhanced graphics features of the system.”


Unfortunately, it’s unclear whether the Xbox One X improvements for games like Forza Motorsport 7 will help the numbers either. Cole says that “the leap from 1080 to 4k resolution is simply not as revolutionary as the previous movement from standard definition to high definition.”

project scorpio video closer look
Given that many people do not currently own 4K televisions and therefore cannot take advantage of that graphical leap, Cole’s analysis may well be correct. Yes, more people will purchase 4K TVs between now and 2021, but will they also buy Xbox One X consoles to take advantage of that when they play games as well?

On the other hand, Microsoft has also promised that the Xbox One X will also show some graphical improvements for those who aren’t using the console with a 4K television. Those with standard HD screens should see some improvements too. But will all of this be enough for Microsoft to hit that 17 million sales mark and beyond? Only time will tell.

Xbox One X releases on November 7, 2017.

Source: Games Industry