In the modern era of streaming TV, shows have a very small window to capture an audience or risk cancelation. If they don't blow up like Stranger Things within one season, they're up against the wall. However, a show like Willow, which recently ended its first season on Disney Plus, could garner a smaller cult fandom and possibly earn a second chance.
The legacy sequel is quickly becoming a separate art form from traditional filmmaking. Something like Top Gun: Maverick would've still been a good film as a standalone project, but it needs the legacy behind it to really fly. However, tying oneself to an existing project can pull the other way as well.
Willow is the unexpected sequel to the 1988 fantasy film of the same name. It's a legacy sequel in the same model as Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The titular Willow, portrayed once again by Warwick Davis, gathers a new team of young adventurers to face the mounting tides of evil. Taken as a whole, it's a perfectly respectable fantasy series. It started coming out shortly after the massive fantasy battle between House of the Dragon and Rings of Power, keeping it mostly out of that bloodbath. As a young adult-oriented fantasy series, it didn't have a lot of concurrent competition for its specific niche. It's tough to describe it as a smash hit or a total failure. It falls somewhere in the middle. If it aired on Netflix, the world would've read headlines about its cancelation before its final episode hit the service. However, on Disney Plus, the rules are different and that could affect the series.
The fact of the matter, without any sugar-coating, is that Willow's chances aren't great. It's not a cheap show to produce, what they save by not casting any huge names they spent on effects, and the fanbase is small. By all accounts, Willow has the worst viewership of Disney Plus's original programming thus far. Worse than every Star Wars and Marvel show on the platform. It also suffered a beating on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics were by and large kind to the show, with most reviews hanging around 3 stars, but the audience score gradually became abysmal. The bad reviews are almost certainly a result of review bombing from a certain subset of unpleasant fans. Though the show isn't tied to one of the big-name franchises, it is based on a legacy property. It also prominently features a lesbian couple and several actors of color, which tends to set off the worst people in the world. The traditional metrics don't seem to favor a second season of Willow, but it's still possible.
Disney Plus is a unique streaming service that handles original programming much differently than the competition. Where Netflix, Hulu, Amazon Prime, and the rest partner constantly with other companies to put up weird and interesting new material, Disney Plus acts more like a stable for existing brands. Almost all Disney Plus original series are based around Star Wars or the Marvel Cinematic Universe. They have gotten experimental within the boundaries of those franchises because they can afford to. Anything with the Star Wars or Marvel logo attached is guaranteed a massive viewership, so they're free to let creators run wild with the IP. Rather than just trying to drive subscriptions to the service, Disney Plus content serves to strengthen the brands during the periods without big blockbuster releases. Though Willow doesn't easily fit into that scheme, it could do a lot to provide something different for the Disney Plus audience.
Disney Plus doesn't have to advertise much. It's got all the movies everyone loved as a kid, the Star Wars franchise, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, and a ton of other surprising films and shows. Most people know the experience of feeling the urge to watch a specific movie and looking it up online to find out which streaming service it's on. Disney Plus rarely has that problem, since everyone already knows most of what's on it. It's unhelpful for Disney to bet their entire industry on so few franchises. Anyone without much interest in kids' movies, space conflict, or Iron Man won't be signing up any time soon. Willow is a new horizon, a new niche to conquer.
All things considered, the smart money is probably against Willow. That's a shame, but it isn't a guarantee. The show has a unique cult fanbase, some solid representation, and good reviews from most critics. Without wishing to spoil, the show doesn't have the most definitive ending. Yet another solid series axed with an unresolved cliffhanger is nothing new, but Willow deserves better. Very few people are rooting against Willow, with most people proudly requesting a second season or blissfully unaware of the show's existence. Willow is a solid fantasy show, but the journey might not be over for the titular wizard and his party of brave adventurers.