Analyst Michael Pachter Expects Wii to "Win" the Holiday Again

Wii to win Holiday 2010 and outsell xbox 360 and playstation 3

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter, says that he expects the Wii to once again be the best-selling console in November and December with some effective marketing, some help at retail, and some great games. Pachter was asked whether he thought big games from Nintendo like Kirby's Epic Yarn and Donkey Kong Country Returns, along with FlingSmash with Wii RemotePlus and the newly announced Super Mario Bros 25th Anniversary bundle could help Nintendo "save" its holiday season. Pachter replied that he did not think Nintendo's holiday season is in trouble at all.

Pachter, agreeing with Nintendo's Mr. Iwata, said he thought the Wii was more of a holiday purchase, explaining that the core audience has been satisfied (i.e. purchased consoles) some time ago, and that the more casual audience (perhaps those shopping for consoles this holiday) makes up a much larger portion of the potential market. Regarding the DS, Pachter argued that it is challenged by the iPod Touch and that the DSi and XL DSi have not really captured the public's imagination. That and the impending launch of the 3DS will continue to impact the sales of existing DS models. Pachter did note that after the 3DS launches that he expects Nintendo's handheld sales to rebound nicely.

While I do not totally disagree with Pachter that the Wii will be the best-selling console in November and December, I do think this could be the closest holiday season yet. With Sony pushing the Move and Microsoft going full steam ahead with the Kinect and the various bundles offered for both, gamers looking for some "movement gaming" this holiday have more options than previous years. That and the fact that Nintendo has already sold so many consoles, I almost wonder who still wants one that doesn't have one already, especially considering that there doesn't seem to be any price drop coming this holiday.

Then again, the same could likely be said about the PS3 and Xbox 360. Sure, they haven't sold as many units as Nintendo, but really how many people that wanted a system have been waiting until now and will pick up a console and Move or Kinect bundle? While I don't doubt that people will pick up some Move units and Kinect units, I am not sure how many people will be getting consoles. Add to that that Sony doesn't really seem to have any huge exclusive games landing this holiday -- will GT5 ever be released -- and Microsoft already dropping Halo: Reach, it could be another holiday "win" for the Wii.

What do you think? Do you agree with Pachter that the Wii will be the best selling console in November and December this year? What order do you think the PS3, Xbox 360, and Wii will finish in the holiday console war? Are you looking to get a console this holiday?

Source: Industry Gamers

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