At the end of 2013's Last of Us, Joel, who'd spent over 20 years mourning after losing his daughter, finally saw the light at the end of the tunnel. After spending months traveling the country and fighting off infected hordes to deliver Ellie to St. Mary Hospital, Joel saved her, killing almost everyone in the hospital and subsequently erasing the Fireflies from the map forever.
So, what would happen if Joel actually did give Ellie up to them? This shift in the story dynamic would've had a significant impact on the way the story unfolded from that point and on. The following list contains ten possible scenarios that could've come afterward. Major spoilers follow, so you've been warned!
10 Joel Wouldn't Meet His Girlfriend, Esther
It's understandable if nobody, even a hardcore fan of the franchise, would know about this because Esther was mentioned only once, and that was on the musical event of The Last of Us: One Night Live.
Actually, Naughty Dog had written a full script for Esther, and she was supposed to appear on Part II, but unfortunately, they decided to scrap it. After Tommy took Ellie to learn how to use a sniper rifle, the two and Joel went over to her place only to find out that she's infected.
"You don't know whether Esther killed herself or if Joel put a bullet in her head, but you know that this was going to happen," co-writer Halley Gross told The Washington Post. "That two adults were making a decision, and they were going to try to protect Ellie as much as they could."
9 Joel Could Join the Fireflies
If Joel did let Ellie go to the Fireflies, he could have been the most respected among the militia group's members. The possibility of him eventually settling down with them is pretty high.
After losing his daughter, Joel spent years mourning her death and became a ruthless, bloody, hard-headed and cold-hearted hunter. That experience would be beneficial for the Fireflies and their quest to fight FEDRA and outsiders' threats. If The Last of Us was a click-and-play, choice-matters game like Until Dawn, we might've seen this alternate ending.
8 The Puzzle to Ellie's Immunity Could Be Solved - For Better Or Worse
We've spent the last two games following the story of Ellie and Joel, and sad to say, there isn't much to tell about Ellie's immunity and how she obtained it. It's the game's most pivotal plot point, and connecting its dots would find an end to something that had cost untold numbers of lives.
If Joel gave up Ellie, the Firefly doctors, even with all their limitations, would at least try to solve the puzzle of Ellie's immunity, and a life-saving, apocalypse-ending vaccine could be on the card. That said, it's equally possible it would've been a waste in its entirety, whether through a botched procedure or other means, making for a truly harrowing conclusion to Ellie's plot thread.
7 A Generation Of Immune People Could Be Born
One of the most bizarre fan theories about Ellie's immunity is that Ellie's mother, namely Anna, was bitten in less than two days before giving birth to her. When you think about it, it actually makes sense because Joel once said that infection takes over in a matter of "two days" and how Marlene was a close friend of her before the outbreak. If the theory is correct, to kickstart a generation of immune people like Ellie, the Fireflies could find a way to allow mothers to become infected right before their due dates in order to replicate it, though that does beg a few more difficult questions.
6 The Seraphites Could Be Erased from the Map
The primitive cult of Seraphites is among the new factions introduced in Part II. Unlike the Wolves, the Rattles, or any other technology-reliant groups, the Seraphites hate technology and believe that it is the Cordyceps infection's leading cause. To avoid civilization, the Seraphites live on an island, miles away from the shore of Seattle.
Although some could be excluded, they live under the law of nature. Their hatred for technology could drive them to be the first group to repudiate the vaccine, as it wouldn't happen if it wasn't for medical technology.
5 Joel Could Be Back on Becoming a Hunter
Like we've previously mentioned above, after losing Sarah in his arms, Joel turned his life 180-degrees from a loving father to a bloodthirsty hunter. With Tommy, the two would loot survivors just for a few supplies and wouldn't hesitate to kill them if necessary. This walk of life had irritated Tommy so much that he decided to leave his brother to join the Fireflies later on.
That means Joel is fine with being a lone wolf. If he gave up Ellie, it would be very likely for him to return to his old life as a hunter.
4 Joel Could Succumb To The Guilt
Joel's vicious and brutal state of mind was shaped as a way of grieving from Sarah's death. At some point before becoming a hunter, Joel had considered ending his own life. Lucky for him, he's still had something to fight for in Tommy, and took to hunting as a way of survival.
If Joel gave up Ellie to the Fireflies, someone he'd seen as his daughter-figure, to the Fireflies, he would have lost his will to live. And due to his history when it comes to dealing with grief, the outcome certainly looks as if it'd be quite grim.
3 Joel Could Have Survived Abby
Abby and Ellie are both the center of Part II's story. Under Abby's golf club, Joel had to face the consequence of his brutal actions at St. Mary Hospital five years ago when he attacked and killed the Fireflies, including Abby's father. Giving up Ellie would undoubtedly have weighed on him heavily, but surely, he wouldn't have to meet his tragic fate in Part II. It's a painful and not-so-good way to die.
2 A Vaccine for Mankind Would Finally Arrive
Picking up a thread from earlier, if what Marlene said about developing a vaccine was true and the means could be extracted from Ellie's brain, the vaccine could be on its way. Despite its lack of facilities, the Fireflies were always a superior side back in their glory days. The vaccine to save mankind could be on the card, but sadly, we will never see that happening any time soon.
Even if they fail, the Fireflies had all the connections and resources to pass the vaccine's development to other groups, maybe the Wolves?
1 If A Vaccine Is Developed, It Could Cause More Strife & Conflict
Again, developing vaccine 20 years after the Outbreak means that the Fireflies have the privilege above other survivor groups, and the war between them could be an inevitable and catastrophic tragedy. Even during their peak, the Fireflies didn't have enough power to produce the vaccine on a massive scale.
Developing it could trigger more significant chaos, or turn the Fireflies as the most prominent force that every other group should obey. Either way, the vaccine could have done more harm than good, which is just the nature of surviving.