Updated on March 22, 2023: The original version of this article erroneously characterized Mueller as an attorney. This has been updated to reflect that he is actually a patent and antitrust law-focused analyst.
Sony has "lost control" over the narrative concerning Microsoft's proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard, according to a long-time patent and antitrust analyst. This perspective on the ongoing drama surrounding the $69 billion takeover attempt arrives shortly after Microsoft offered a compromise to the EU over the deal, with multiple sources reporting its concession package—that has yet to go public—does not mention Sony.
Over the course of the last 12 months, Sony has been raising objections to Microsoft's Activision Blizzard acquisition with various regulators all over the world. Despite the PlayStation owner's efforts to oppose the consolidation, which also includes Candy Crush maker King, Microsoft still appears confident the transaction will go through.
Veteran patent and antitrust analyst Florian Mueller shares that sentiment, having recently claimed Sony missed multiple chances to offer "constructive solutions" in favor of ferocious opposition that has now made it lose control over the narrative surrounding the deal. Mueller, who currently counts Microsoft among his clients and worked as a Blizzard consultant in the past, tells Game Rant he is unaware of "any other case in which a complainant's obstructive attitude was spelled out so clearly" as it is here. "Regulators don't like that," he posits.
Asked for examples of what Sony could have done differently to influence the long-term outcome of the Activision Blizzard takeover, Mueller points to a recent revelation that a Sony exec was throwing shade at the Call of Duty deal on the day of Microsoft's February 21 EU merger hearing. "Everyone was in Brussels, and that would have been a good time to sit down and hammer out a deal," he says. For context, "everyone" also included Nvidia, which announced a 10-year agreement with Microsoft to bring Xbox PC games to its GeForce Now streaming platform on the same day.
Microsoft-affiliated experts aren't the only ones who believe the pending transaction will go through. According to an early February report from Wedbush analysts, Microsoft is likely to complete the Activision Blizzard acquisition this year, likely by mid-2023. Asked to speculate if the top Xbox rival ever truly believed the deal could be blocked, Mueller expressed skepticism over whether Sony's executives are being given "realistic" advice. Given how the Japanese entertainment giant's multi-jurisdiction complaints yielded some PR wins early on, it is possible that Sony was "emboldened" by that apparent impact to the point it "overplayed its hand," he says.
Mueller concedes that creating enough fuss to prompt competition probes isn't easy, but calls it a "cakewalk" compared to convincing regulators to block consolidations that are "typically cleared" when combined with "effective remedies." For clarity, Microsoft President Brad Smith recently confirmed that PlayStation's Call of Duty deal is set to expire in 2024, but Sony repeatedly signaled it would prefer blocking the Activision Blizzard acquisition over signing another such agreement in the vein of what Nintendo, Nvidia, Boosteroid, and Ubitus did in recent weeks.
Source: FOSS Patents