Following the recent announcement that The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance isn’t coming back for another season, it’s become a known-fact that Netflix is pretty ruthless when it comes to culling its own shows. The Santa Clarita Diet, American Vandal, The OA, Marvel’s Daredevil – some fan favorites have been cut unceremoniously by the streaming juggernaut, often leaving storylines unresolved. However, the reason Netflix cancels a show is pretty cut-and-dry, in that it all comes down to metrics. For their content team, it’s simply balancing how much a show costs versus how many subscriptions it drives.
Above all else, Netflix wants to gain more subscribers, so that more people give them money each month. Each time they announce a new show or promote an upcoming original film, the streaming service carefully watches to see how many viewers and subscribers the new offering garners. For mega-popular shows like Stranger Things and The Witcher, their high price tag is justified by an uptick of new and satisfied happy customers. Even for smaller shows like Floor is Lava this logic still works, as although they may not gain Netflix as many new subscribers as big alternatives, they're generally cheap enough to justify. In essence, if a show costs a lot to make and promote but isn’t seen a lot, then it's cut.
Knowing this, then, it’s pretty easy to work out which shows could be the next to be cut by Netflix – just see which are most expensive and made the smallest splash. Looking at casting, locations, special effects, promotion, costume etc., as well as published budgets for shows, it’s easy to see the series that are likely next for the chop.
Space Force
Optically, Space Force sounds like it could be one of the best television shows of all time. The killer combination of The Office-creator Greg Daniels and star Steve Carell, a gargantuan Netflix-sized budget, and a subject matter that is ripe with potential (a satirical look at Trump’s much-maligned ‘Space Force’)? The show has all the makings to be a massive success, and Netflix promoted the show everywhere… but then it just wasn't very popular.
Boasting a measly 38% on Rotten Tomatoes, Space Force was criticized for its weird, non-comedic tone and stilted pacing. Moreover, although the show boasted initially high viewership upon release, it would appear that not many viewers made it past the first few episodes, indicating a general lack of interest; people weren't subscribing for Space Force. Between the expensive, big-name cast (John Malkovich, Lisa Kudrow, and Ben Schwartz to name a few) and the necessary sets and special effects, the series probably cost a fair bit, making its renewal seem like a big ask. That said, it’s likely for the show to have a second season just off the virtue of IP alone…but beyond that? The outlook looks bleak.
The Politician
One of the first results of Ryan Murphy’s record-breaking deal with Netflix, The Politician suffers from a similar issue to Space Force – it’s a great idea with a fantastic cast, but it seemingly doesn’t have the viewership to back it up. Centering around Ben Platt as the ambitious politician Payton Hobart, the show follows the precocious youth on his various electoral campaigns, on a mission to one day be president. It’s classic Ryan Murphy TV through-and-through, complete with love triangles, celebrity cameos, and over-the-top drama.
The issue is that, unlike similar Murphy shows such as Glee and American Horror Story, The Politician hasn’t seemed to build up much of a fan base. Indeed, two seasons of the show have been released in under nine months, but neither have made much of splash in terms of viewership. Coupled with a big and expensive cast (how do they keep affording Gwyneth Paltrow?!), this has likely turned heads at Netflix. With Murphy saying that a third season would only come after “a few years” have passed, the question looks to become if it’ll be released at all.
Cursed
Cursed just feels like someone at Netflix has pitched the idea of just combining two of their shows, and hope people like it – it’s essentially 13 Reasons Why’s Katherine Langford placed in the world of The Witcher, but with high-school themes. Yeah, really.
Following Nimue (Langford) as she seeks to deliver the ‘Sword of Power’ to Merlin, the show suffers from the fact that period fantasy dramas are innately very expensive. Between the contextual costumes, varied locations, and abundant VFX, the show probably cost a pretty penny to make. Paired with how it’s too high-school-drama for fantasy fans and too fantasy for high-school-drama fans, the show seemingly has failed to find its audience, indicating that Netflix may just cut it loose.
The Midnight Gospel
The only animated offering on this list, The Midnight Gospel is difficult to describe. A surrealist series that appeals to the stoner-crowd (it was even released on 4/20), the show boasts bizarre visuals, existential themes, and a lot of weed jokes (like, a lot). The series follows Clancy, a “spacecaster” (i.e. podcaster) who lives on a membranous, tape-like planet called the Chromatic Ribbon, and who uses powerful bio-organic computers to simulate a variety of universes to create people he can interview for his podcast.
Created by Pendleton Ward (the visionary behind Adventure Time), the show is very particular about the audience wants to engage with (new-age smokers), almost to a fault. Due to its confusing, idiosyncratic subject matter, it hasn’t been able to fully engage a wider viewing base, which is unfortunate considering how expensive it must be. Between the dwindling number of viewers and expensive price-tag, it's easy to see why the show may not get a second season.
Hollywood
Another Ryan Murphy production, Hollywood faces all the same issues The Politician does but compounded with the fact it’s a period piece. Following a group of young, intrepid artists during the beginning of Hollywood’s Golden Age, the show explores the studio system, systemic social issues, and extravagant parties that defined that era…. and, again, with a lot of celebrity cameos (Jim Parsons, this time!).
Because Netflix keeps its viewing figures under wraps, it's hard to gauge how many people have watched Hollywood, but industry experts are predicting not a lot. This, paired with just how much more expensive period pieces are, due to all the extra sets, costumes, and details, it wouldn’t be surprising for the streaming giant to decide that Hollywood just isn’t worth what it costs and just isn't giving the service the subscribers it so desperately wants.