According to early estimations, Rockstar Games' forthcoming western title Red Dead Redemption 2 stands to sell at least 15 million copies after its release.
With Rockstar Games having just recently confirmed the existence of Red Dead Redemption 2 with a release date set for fall 2017, it's safe to say that anticipation for the long-rumored game has reached a fever pitch. As a matter of fact, the research firm known as Cowen & Company has now released a statement in which it declares that such excitement for the the western title helps give it the potential to eventually sell at least 15 million copies.
While some might believe such a sales estimate to be both premature and inordinately high, Cowen & Company would argue that Red Dead Redemption 2 moving upwards of 15 million units might actually be considered a "conservative" approximation. This is due in part to the fact that the precursor to the forthcoming title was well-received by critics and fans alike, as many have dubbed it to be one of the top games of the last generation on PS3 and Xbox 360, which has helped the game's reputation "grow in stature over the years."
For those unaware, as of August 2015, Red Dead Redemption has had 14 million units shipped in total. Of course, that's not taking into account any of the sales figures regarding the open world western title's 6000 percent sales spike after Rockstar Games announced that it would be coming to the Xbox One via Microsoft's popular backward compatibility program. If anything, these numbers surely help support Cowen & Company's claims that Red Dead Redemption 2's sales could go on to exceed 15 million copies.
Furthermore, Cowen & Company also made mention of the fact that Rockstar Games' most recent release of 2013's Grand Theft Auto 5 has shipped 65 million units. According to the analyst firm, the sales for GTA 5 is evidence of the "increased concentration of unit sales in top titles since Red Dead Redemption's release in 2010."
Of course, just like Grand Theft Auto 5 has done with its online component, Red Dead Redemption 2could also generate even more revenue for itself beyond its actual unit sales through its "brand-new online multiplayer experience," which will surely be housed under Rockstar's recent domain registration of Red Dead Online. However, it remains to be seen as to exactly how the gameplay feature will be incorporated into the forthcoming western game, but if GTA 5's business model of letting people spend real money to get in-game currency is any indication of the success RDR 2's version, then Rockstar will be making cash hand over fist.
Finally, but perhaps most importantly, Cowen & Company has also noted that Rockstar "does have a history of title delays," with the firm already believing that Red Dead Redemption 2 might have already been pushed back, even though this hasn't been shared publicly. Apparently, Rockstar possibly wished to ship the sequel during Take-Two's April-June 2017 quarter before choosing the fall 2017 launch time-frame, but this is speculation on the part of the analyst firm. Should this be accurate, it will be interesting to see if the developer goes on to postpone Red Dead Redemption 2 in between now and its current release window — potentially to make a coveted PC version — and how that could affect sales.
Red Dead Redemption 2 is currently set to release sometime in the fall of 2017 for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One.