Live service games have been around for decades with MMOs like World of Warcraft, but have only really risen to mainstream popularity in the past few years, with Destiny serving as the real catalyst for what now dominates a large portion of the games industry. It's been stated that the PS5 and Xbox Scarlett will have stellar support for live service games out of the gate, meaning the genre is here to stay for at least a while longer. However, it's hard to nail down what ramifications that could have early on in a console's lifecycle.
It's important to recognize how the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One shifted the market when the two consoles made their debut. Fundamentally, both systems were built on a foundation of connectivity. For the PlayStation 4, this meant adding a share button, a way to immediately upload a clip to Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, or to start a Twitch stream. The Xbox One shared many of these features, though Microsoft's early messaging about always being connected to the internet and DRM. While these features don't seem to be as popular as originally intended—Sony has even removed Facebook integration from the PS4—they still shaped the way games were played and developed.
Even beyond these social features, though, the two consoles were designed to face an entirely new challenge: digital distribution. Purchasing games through the internet was still a relatively novel concept, one that the Xbox 360 and PS3 certainly hadn't been designed for at launch. Digital storefronts have been more ingrained in this console generation than any in the past, even if that convenience has been taken for granted. That integration, coupled with quickening internet speeds, is one of the main factors in the steady decline of physical game sales.
Live service games are a direct result of these shifts in the market, from their massive success on platforms like Twitch to their almost exclusively digital nature. The games that will almost certainly appear alongside the next-gen consoles, such as Fortnite, Apex Legends, Destiny, etc., will be successful beyond a reasonable doubt. Launch games tend to not be great, though with games like Halo Infinite launching alongside the Xbox Scarlett, that may not be the case this time around. Still, having tried and true games will likely dominate the consoles for the first few months. That may set a precedent for the rest of the console generation, or at least make it seem like there is.
Live service games are here to stay, and while the genre being prominent on next-gen hardware from day one may make it seem like that's the reason for more flooding the market, new live service games are going to release regardless. It simply makes sense for publishers and developers. It's easier to add content to an existing game than start from scratch, and the games are easy to monetize by their very nature. Next-gen consoles may inject more of a player base into the live service games on the market, but the new ones landing after that will almost certainly be a result of the success the genre is enjoying at this very moment.
This does, however, raise the question of how, or if, the consoles will change to better suit the service game industry. If the games wind up dominating the market, it isn't too much to imagine that Sony and Microsoft would introduce features to better meet the needs of those games. Look at how successful that type of game is on live streaming services like Twitch. For Microsoft, in particular, introducing features that may help grow viewership on its own broadcasting platform, Mixer, would make sense as a mutually beneficial relationship between that company and, say, Fortnite.
Of course, there's no guarantee that will be the case. Consoles traditionally have only really improved to better serve games as a whole, rather than just one genre, but times are changing. There's a good chance that new features, especially those made to create better experiences with the increasingly-digital nature of the industry, will indirectly benefit live service games, whatever those features may wind up looking like. As the "Netflixication" of video games continues, there's really no telling how things will begin to look for the industry.
Ultimately, the question is whether or not this is a bad thing. Live service games are great for certain types of people, but there's still a large portion of the industry that prefers single-player experiences. Given the recent success of games like Jedi Fallen Order, there's a good chance that those experiences will be safe, even if some companies focus on nailing down live service titles. Plus, companies like Sony have reaffirmed that they have no intention of stopping single-player releases, so there really isn't much to worry about in that regard.
What's more likely to happen is traditional multiplayer games beginning to disappear over the course of next-gen. This is something that's been happening for a while, with triple-a games opting to take a live service approach for the past year or so, with some of the best multiplayer games of 2019 taking that approach. It will become the new standard for multiplayer games, though that is better than having to wade through loot boxes.
This system is even being seen in re-releases of classic games, as the Master Chief Collection version of Halo Reach has taken a seasonal reward approach to its own progression. Who knows what other games may take that path. Rereleases, remakes, and remasters are growing more prominent, and it may be easier for developers and publishers to keep players engaged with that type of content release schedule, though it may be detrimental to the original experience.
The future of the games industry is somewhat clouded, but it isn't doomed. Not everyone is a fan of the live service model, but there's likely to be a little something for everyone. Time will tell if this is ultimately for the best, and it would be nice to go back to the far simpler days of the game just being the game. For now, those looking forward to the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Scarlett can rest assured knowing that live service games may be prominent on the systems, but there will still be plenty of single-player games left to enjoy too.