For some Pokemon players, beating a game like Pokemon Sword and Shield has multiple levels, ranging from defeating the champion, to completing the endgame content, all the way to obtaining a complete Pokedex. However, there are players who take the final option one step further and try to find the ultra-rare Shiny version of each available creature in Pokemon Sword and Shield.

Fortunately, the lack of a National Pokedex actually makes both of these objectives a little easier, but in the case of Shiny Pokemon, even a mere 400 Pokemon is a daunting task. One fan, however, has taken the time to calculate the odds of finding a Shiny Pokemon through the most common breeding methods by using statistics and binomial distribution.

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Essentially, Reddit user nohholmez ran the probability of encountering a Shiny Pokemon through breeding, with varying methods to increase the odds, and measured the number of times 50 individuals would each succeed in finding the rare creatures. The results simply show what is likely to happen in 50 cases, however extending them over the millions of players who bought Sword and Shield, and suddenly it seems as though there is a lot more room for unlucky players. Regardless of each individual player's chances of actually finding a Shiny Pokemon between 50 and 5000 hatches, one fan favorite method is still standing above the others for players dedicated enough to attempt the challenge.

The method that seems to work the best according to these statistics is the combination of holding a Shiny Charm and mating Pokemon via the Masuda method. Players can earn the Shiny Charm in Pokemon Sword and Shield by completing the Pokedex and heading to Hotel Ionia. The Masuda method is the trickier method of the two, as it requires players to mate two Pokemon from different versions of the game with different languages, which means players have to acquire a Pokemon from a different region in the real world.

Whatever meathod players use, the highest result any of the players in nohholmez's test had out of 5000 attempts was 17 Shiny Pokemon encounters. So think carefully before jumping on this task unprepared, because it's going to be a long run to capturing every Shiny Pokemon the game has to offer. Even if only looking to collect a handful of favorite Pokemon, the task is truly daunting.

However, for any player that decides to go for it, remember nohholmez's advice to not keep count, remember that each new egg is a new probability, and keep at it. A Shiny Pokemon will eventually come, it might just be a long while.

Pokemon Sword and Shield are available now for the Nintendo Switch.

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Source: Reddit