With upcoming Pokemon main series titles Pokemon Scarlet and Violet still several months from release, fans have taken to the Internet to share theories, rumors, and analyses. However, not all the online Pokemon discussion centers around the upcoming games. Fans of the series continue to discuss the Pokemon of previous generations, especially those which might appear in Generation 9. Pokemon with unique evolutionary paths are a popular topic of discussion; one of these, Lycanroc, recently sparked conversation.
Lycanroc, the evolved form of the puppy-like Rockruff, is a canine Rock-type Pokemon. It was introduced in the Generation 7 games, Pokemon Sun and Moon, and could be encountered in the Vast Poni Canyon area of the Alola region. Originally, Lycanroc possessed two evolved forms, Midday and Midnight, which could be found in Pokemon Sun and Pokemon Moon respectively. Midday Lycanroc resembles a standard wolf, and Midnight Lycanroc a werewolf. A third form, Dusk, was added in the enhanced re-releases Pokemon Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon. Rockruff was recently spotted in a trailer for Scarlet and Violet, but it was not confirmed which Lycanroc forms would return.
A Lycanroc evolves into Midday Form when leveled up during the day and Midnight Form when leveled at night. However, the evolution requirements for Dusk Lycanroc are far stricter. First, the Rockruff must have the Ability Own Tempo. Then, it must be leveled up between 5pm and 6pm in Ultra Sun or 5am and 6am in Ultra Moon. On Reddit, a user who has since deleted their account pointed out that, within the Pokemon universe, obtaining a Dusk Form Lycanroc must be a rare occurrence. They estimated that a trainer would have only a 1 in 22,000,000 chance of evolving a Dusk Lycanroc due to the narrow window of time available.
[deleted by user] from pokemon
Commenters responded by sharing examples of other Pokemon whose appearance would be similarly rare in-universe. Examples included Runerigus, an evolution of Yamask which requires battling in an extremely specific location, and the many different-colored forms of Alcremie, which involve spinning a Milcery different directions at certain times during the day. Others speculated regarding the in-universe mechanics of evolving Inkay into Malamar, which requires holding the game system upside down.
One commenter, u/aced4rk, further calculated the chance of acquiring a Shiny Dusk Lycanroc. Combining the previously stated odds of 1 in 22,000,000 with Pokemon Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon's Shiny encounter rate of 1 in 4096, they determined that the odds of a Shiny Dusk Lycanroc appearing were approximately 1 in 90 billion. Others debated whether the in-universe odds were even slimmer, as Pokemon anime protagonist Ash Ketchum was only able to obtain a Dusk Lycanroc by viewing a "green flash," an event that possibly lasted only a few seconds rather than the entire hour allowed in the games.
Pokemon Scarlet and Violet will release on November 18, 2022 for the Nintendo Switch.