State of Play or PlayStation Showcase rumors come a dime-a-dozen, but that doesn't mean there isn't some kernel of truth to these Sony rumors. Behind the scenes, events like these are often moved or goalposts are changed because of fan demands, organizing the various studios involved, and so on. It's hard to say what's truthful and what's not because of this, but following rumors a PlayStation Showcase would take place in September (as it had in previous years), the latest suggests it'll take place in October instead.
There's basically a full month ahead when Sony could announce and host the PlayStation Showcase, so it's impossible to pinpoint a date. However, recent developments regarding three major Sony exclusives could add more evidence to it happening soon.
PlayStation Showcase Evidence is Piling Up
The first is the most circumstantial: God of War Ragnarok releases in a month. Fans have gotten glimpses, but there hasn't been much ahead of its release. It has gotten an ESRB rating, a few story trailers, and only little snippets of the gameplay. It needs a full blowout ahead of November, and that has to happen at some point this month. On that basis, God of War Ragnarok deserves a stage. It's already being heralded as a Game of the Year contender against Elden Ring, and a proper PlayStation Showcase would help that case a ton.
Up next is Final Fantasy 16. Producer Yoshi-P recently stated fans COULD see more about the game in October, with that language suggesting nothing was set in stone yet. This language matches, of course, someone considering an event that may or may not happen at a certain time or another. Final Fantasy 16 is up there, and with both it and God of War Ragnarok due for a trailer/showing, it's unlike Sony to just set the two apart.
Those two are compelling reasons for a PlayStation Showcase, but there is one much bigger element that could hint at it happening: Horizon Zero Dawn. A recent document leaked that Horizon Zero Dawn was getting some form of remake/remaster treatment, and the document itself contained other games in development under the wider Sony banner. It's not likely that all of them are announced anytime soon, but it stands to reason the Horizon Zero Dawn announcement is coming soon, while a few of those games are listed could be announced too. And if it's going to announce something big and new, Horizon or otherwise, a PlayStation Showcase would be perfect for that.
Perhaps Sony is planning something different this year, but with all of this taking place, it's hard to imagine that it spells out anything other than PlayStation Showcase.