An analytics firm has predicted that the PlayStation 5 will outsell the Xbox Series X by a significant amount. The PlayStation 4 has outsold the Xbox One throughout the entire console generation, and it does stand to reason that trend may continue, though there are many factors that could change the result, such as messaging and price.
The projection, published by Ampere Analysis, estimated that the PlayStation 5 will sell-through 4.6 million units by the end of 2020, with the Xbox Series X selling 3.3 million units in the same period. The gap between the two consoles is estimated to grow exponentially after that, with the PS5 projected to sell 66 million units by the end of 2024, versus the Xbox Series X selling 37 million units.
However, Ampere did acknowledge that Microsoft is in a more competitive position than it was at the start of this generation, with better messaging to consumers and Xbox Game Pass, which the projection called a "key competitive factor," bolstering its reception. Additionally, Halo Infinite is an Xbox Series X launch game, the first time the series has aligned with a new console since the original Xbox's release in 2001, which should help with early sales.
That being said, the report emphasizes that Sony is in a "commanding position" over Microsoft, with the PlayStation 4 selling more than double the Xbox One as of this year. That position is supplemented by a strong line up of PlayStation 5 exclusives, many of which were shown off at the PS5 reveal event.
Additionally, the report projects fewer total unit sales with next-gen consoles due to the progressive shift to cloud services and a recession caused by COVID-19. The report also mentions Microsoft's gradual shift away from console sales as a reason for the decline. Microsoft is slowly putting a heavier emphasis on services, indicating a change to a gaming platform rather than a traditional console.
That shift is heavily indicated by Project xCloud, which looks to find a gaming audience beyond consoles similar to what Google Stadia set out to do, but with a stronger library of games to attract more users. Essentially, Microsoft is slated to sell fewer units, but that may not matter, as the company's strategy has evolved dramatically in the past few years.
Of course, projections are imperfect, and there are significant numbers of outside factors that may alter the end result. That being said, the next console cycle is going to be unlike any before it, largely due to the rise of cloud gaming. That has implications for the generation after the PS5 and Xbox Series X, though that's still too far away to worry about.
The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X will release holiday 2020.