Industry analyst Michael Pachter is at it again with his predictions, this time playing it a little bit more conservatively and saying that Battlefield 3 has no chance of beating Call of Duty’s sales numbers in 2011.
Pachter does however, acknowledge that Battlefield 3 had a very impressive showing at this year’s GDC and that publisher Electronic Arts has a good chance of outselling last year’s Battlefield: Bad Company 2 sales numbers.
Of course, Pachter isn’t making as bold of predictions as he has in the past with this one, but many Battlefield fans who are proclaiming this third entry as a revelation are going to be wary of his statements. Call of Duty, as cemented by Black Ops, is certainly the top-selling franchise, but it has since become stale for many gamers looking for evolution in concept.
Unfortunately, with a top-selling title comes insurmountable odds to be beaten, making Battlefield 3’s comparative success nigh impossible. Pachter explains:
“There is no prayer that Battlefield 3 will top the next Call of Duty, silly question. EA is trying to gain share incrementally, and I'm sure that if it is a great game, Battlefield 3 will sell 25 - 35% more copies than the last version. It would have to sell around 300% more than the last version to topple Call of Duty.”
Giving Battlefield 3 “no prayer” of beating Call of Duty is certainly a harsh sentiment, but Pachter isn’t someone who deals in a grey area. What he does feel Battlefield 3 can do for the series, as compared to Call of Duty, is take a larger percentage of the overall “share.”
If Battlefield 3 can deliver the single player experience gamers have been promised, and combine it with the multiplayer that already has a huge fan base, then there is a chance Call of Duty might lose some of its typical patrons.
“The question you didn't ask is whether Battlefield 3 will take share; based upon the growing installed base of CoD multiplayer players, it's possible that BOTH games will see higher sales in 2011, so I wonder whether EA will actually "take" share.”
There are still plenty of factors to take into account for 2011 before either EA or Activision can begin to count their successes or losses. With this year’s Call of Duty still up in the air, especially now that several other studios have stepped in, gamers might not have to worry about where to spend their money.
Oh who are we kidding, there will be a Call of Duty this year, and it will sell millions of units on day one — but perhaps so will Battlefield 3.
Do you think Battlefield 3 has a chance of overtaking 2011’s Call of Duty? If you could only pick up one: which would it be?
Source: Industry Gamers