Obsidian is currently developing two major first-person RPGs, Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2. When looked at alongside smaller projects like Grounded, it certainly seems like the studio is busier than ever before.
This has led some fans to worry that Obsidian may be biting off more than it can chew. While those fears are not unfounded given the company's history, there is also some evidence to suggest that the studio may be in a stronger position to take on ambitious projects like Avowed and The Outer Worlds sequel.
Obsidian's Past
Obsidian Entertainment is one of the most respected western RPG studios in the industry. Many of its employees have impressive resumes dating back to Black Isle Studios, best known for games like the first two Fallout titles and Baldur's Gate. Despite its esteem, Obsidian Entertainment has long been seen as a junior studio to RPG giants like Bethesda. Many of Obsidian's games are beloved, particularly for their writing, but the studio has a history of struggling financially in a way that larger studios have not.
For a time this made Obsidian's position particularly precarious. Back in 2010 when Fallout: New Vegas got an 84 on Metacritic, Bethesda denied Obsidian a bonus contingent on the game receiving an 85 on the review aggregator. This led Obsidian CEO Francis Urquhart to announce the cancellation of a planned project codenamed "North Carolina." While bigger studios like Bethesda can weather less successful releases like Fallout 76, for a time it seemed like Obsidian was just one flop away from falling apart.
Obsidian's Recent History
When Obsidian returned to CRPGs with released like Pillars of Eternity and its sequel, the hope was likely to help revive and occupy a large portion of the CRPG market following the success of games like Wasteland 2. Although the Pillars of Eternity games were critically successful, however, the studio was still struggling commercially.
Obsidian's past financial struggles were likely one of the motivations behind taking the setting from Pillars of Eternity and using it for a more mainstream, accessible first-person fantasy RPG like Avowed. While CRPGs remain a relatively niche market, Avowed was almost immediately compared to Skyrim after its announcement trailer.
With news about The Elder Scrolls 6 practically non-existent since its announcement at E3 2018, Obsidian is likely hoping to fill part of that gap in the market, even if Xbox head Phil Spencer claims Avowed will be a very different experience to The Elder Scrolls. Avowed may be trying to differentiate itself, but comparisons to one of the best-selling games of all time are unlikely to hurt its sales.
Microsoft purchased Obsidian back in 2018, just a few months after the release of Pillars of Eternity 2: Deadfire, giving the studio some stability. Since then Obsidian has undertaken a surprising number of confirmed projects. This includes Avowed, The Outer Worlds 2, and continuing work on Grounded, the studio's Honey, I Shrunk The Kids-inspired survival game. Despite Microsoft's backing, two major first-person RPGs and updates for a survival game seems like a lot to handle considering Obsidian's history. This had led many fans to worry that the studio may have bitten off more than it can chew.
Obsidian's Future
There are a few reasons why Obsidian's situation may not be as bad as it sounds, however. Not only has Microsoft given the studio some much-needed stability, but The Outer Worlds' commercial success exceeded the financial expectations of publisher Private Divisions. The Outer Worlds is not without its flaws, but with Bethesda otherwise dominating the first-person RPG market, it provided a respite from Bethesda's two main franchises and the long wait for their next installments. While Obsidian's CRPGs sometimes struggled commercially, the studio's penchant for more traditional RPG design also stood out in contrast to games like Fallout 4, which has often been described as a better shooter than an RPG, even by fans of the Fallout franchise.
This bodes well for The Outer Worlds 2, which was announced at E3 2021. The game's trailer parodied the early announcements of other games - particularly RPGs like Cyberpunk 2077 and The Elder Scrolls 6 - suggesting it's in very early development. In that case, The Outer Worlds 2 could be in Obsidian's back pocket, with the announcement trailer designed to keep interest in the studio's upcoming releases as it works on Avowed. In other words, the fact that both Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2 are "in development" doesn't actually mean that Obsidian is dividing its resources evenly between the games, or anywhere close.
Todd Howard recently announced that The Elder Scrolls 6 is still "in the design phase" over three years after its initial reveal, with the studio focusing primarily on Starfield, its first new IP in over 25 years. It's likely that, similar to Bethesda, most of Obsidian's resources are currently focused on Avowed. The Outer Worlds 2's trailer may have poked fun at games announced long before their development had begun in earnest, but it's also likely a self-confessed culprit of exactly that.
That might be bad news for fans of The Outer Worlds hoping to see the sequel soon, but it could be good news for Obsidian overall. In fact, it seems like Obsidian might be taking its time with its main projects. Avowed was expected by many to make an appearance at E3 2021, and the fact that it didn't could mean that Obsidian is holding off on revealing too much until it's really ready. If the last year has taught RPG developers anything, it's not to build too much hype too early, something Cyberpunk 2077 infamously fell victim to over its prolonged development and controversial, chaotic release.
A smaller project like Grounded also seems unlikely to take up too many of Obsidian's resources, even if its continually worked on throughout the development of Avowed and The Outer Worlds 2. Ultimately, there's no way to know how well the studio is handling multiple projects until details about either Avowed or The Outer Worlds 2's release windows are revealed. However, while Obsidian has struggled in the past, the studio may be in a better position for its increasing ambition than ever before.
Avowed is in development for PC and Xbox Series X/S.