The Nintendo Switch could outsell the Xbox One this year, according to famed games industry analyst Michael Pachter. The Switch had an incredibly successful launch, but can it maintain the momentum enough to beat the Microsoft machine?

During the latest episode of his Pachter Factor show, the analyst suggests that the Nintendo Switch could do very well for itself in 2017. Pachter told viewers that the “Switch could sell as many as 14 million [this year] and if that happens, that’s more than Xbox One, which sells about 10-11 million per year.”

Pachter admitted that it will be a “close” race between the two, given that both consoles retail for $300 and have different target audiences. If players want a home console they will buy an Xbox One and if they want a handheld then they will purchase a Switch. The analyst pointed to the Japanese market, where the Nintendo Switch is selling faster than the PS4, though it’s unlikely that the Xbox One has even sold that much in the territory yet.

Also making it a tight race is the fact that the Xbox One X will be released this year and is expected to sell 17 million units by 2021. Pachter did not mention this in his Switch sales prediction segment but if he and other analysts have underestimated the potential of the high-powered Microsoft console then the sales of both consoles could be on par with one another.

One console that the Nintendo Switch is unlikely to beat, said Pachter, is the Nintendo Wii. Executives from video game retailer GameStop have previously said that the Switch could outsell the Wii, citing the high demand for the new console. But Pachter isn’t so convinced and explained that “Over time, Switch will do 50 million [units sold] if price comes down, the question is, will it do 100 million? I don’t think so. That’s 20 million a year. 10 million per year? Sure, but 20 million a year, ever? Probably not.” The analyst also said that “when people talk about this thing being as big as the Wii, they’re crazy.”

Pachter’s predictions have not always been so reliable, most recently catching flak for suggesting that The Elder Scrolls 6 would be released this year, but that game has not even entered development. As such, any analysis should be taken with a grain of salt, but it will be interesting to see how the final figures shake out.

Source: YouTube – Pachter Factor