Resident Evil creator Shinji Mikami thinks it will be a decade before motion controls will be mainstream.
Microsoft and Sony are attempting to cash in on the success the Nintendo Wii has had with motion control. However, it will be a long while before gamers, across the board, will trade-in their standard controllers.
Speaking with 1UP, Mikami stated:
"I don't think motion controls will be in the gaming mainstream in the next ten years. When the technology gets to the point where you can just flick your eyeballs around and the computer can pick it up, you won't need a controller anymore. Obviously it's going to take a while to get there."
For motion control to dominate the gaming landscape, it would require us to completely change the way we interact with games. A lot of players, don't want to come home, after a long day of work, and have to wave their arms around and, essentially, workout. Many gamers simply wish to sit down with and old fashioned controller - and just play. For those who have been gaming for awhile, it would be more difficult to make a cold turkey switch to motion control, since they have been playing a more relaxed way for decades. Though, younger gamers, and new gamers, might be more receptive to the shift.
Currently, motion control is a gimmick, targeting casual gamers with a few exceptions such as Killzone 3 in 3D while using the Move. To become the number 1 way we play, Move, WiiMotion, and Kinect would have to make it past the genre of gimmick gaming and offer a more immersive experience (that you couldn't get with a controller) - which could make it a necessity to more people in the gaming community. Right now, there are too many games that are still much more enjoyable with a classic control scheme.
Personally, I don't think it will take a decade, with Microsoft and Sony both preparing to launch their motion tech, we're in for a major surge of games that appeal to the core gaming audience as well as more attention surrounding the evolution of the gaming experience.
There may even come a day when the controller, as we know it, becomes obsolete.