While Disney has not shared official figures on how much revenue Mulan has earned since debuting on the company's own streaming service, a Yahoo report estimated the film earned $261 million over 12 days on Disney+ based on information provided by the analytics research firm 7Park Data. However, the co-founder of the research firm has now stated that the data was misinterpreted and estimated Mulan only earned $62-$93 million over twelve days.
7Park's data indicated nearly 29% of U.S. Disney+ users who accessed the app from September 1 to September 12 had purchased Mulan for the $30 premium fee. Based on the assumption that U.S. households account for 50% of Disney+'s 60 million-plus subscribers, that would mean roughly 9 million users purchased Mulan for the additional $30, which would amount to net profits of approximately $261 million in U.S. markets alone. However, those calculations appear to have been starting from a faulty assumption according to comments made by 7Park's Brian Lichtenberger.
"The data we shared with Yahoo represents the share of the Disney+ audience that streamed Mulan during the first 12 days of September 2. The size of the audience during the first 12 days of September does not equate to the entire size of the Disney+ US subscriber base," Lichtenberger explained in a series of tweets. According to Lichtenberger, a more accurate way to estimate Mulan's revenue would be to look to the data he compiled on the film's audience share on Disney+ during the third quarter. "The data shows Mulan share during Q3 to date is just north of 10%," he explained before calculating that if 10.32% of the assumed 30 million U.S. subscribers (50% of the 60 million worldwide) paid an additional $30 for Mulan, that would amount to only $93 million in Disney+ revenue.
Mulan was scheduled to debut in theaters on March 27, 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic prompted Disney to postpone its release until July 24 and then again to August 21 of the same year. As the pandemic continued to impact most of the world, the company opted to forgo a theatrical release in the U.S. altogether and would make Mulan available to Disney+ subscribers for the aforementioned additional fee on September 4, 2020. Lichtenberger noted that his $93 million revenue estimate does not include money earned from new subscribers who joined for Mulan.
While Mulan was released in certain areas where theaters have been allowed to reopen, the latest live-action remake has not fared well in traditional venues either. Disney was expecting Mulan to perform well in China, but instead, the film debuted to an underwhelming $23 million in the country.
The initial report of Mulan's success suggested Disney had made the right call in making the big-budget blockbuster available on VOD while Warner Bros.' insistence on releasing Christopher Nolan's Tenet in theaters cost them. However, it now seems neither gamble paid off, signaling more bad news for Hollywood as the pandemic shows no signs of coming to an end soon.
Mulan is now available on Disney+.
Source: Brian Lichtenberger/Twitter