Keeping with the annual tradition, the team behind Madden NFL 23 has offered its prediction on this year’s Super Bowl winner. Madden's predictions are based on simulations run in the game engine. They are usually spot-on when it comes to determining the winner of the game. They’re less accurate when trying to predict the specific score or point differential.EA has been using Madden to predict the outcomes of Super Bowls for the past 19 NFL seasons. The tradition began with Super Bowl 38 in 2004. Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a 32 to 29 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Madden accurately predicted the winner of the game, though the score was off by nine points on both sides.This weekend’s Super Bowl 57 pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Madden NFL 23 thinks the Eagles will walk away with the Lombardi trophy with a dominant 31-17 victory. The first half, according to the simulation, ends with the teams tied at 10. The Eagles come out of halftime on fire, scoring two quick touchdowns in the third quarter while the Chiefs end the third with only one. That turned out to be the last time the Chiefs scored during the simulation. Eagles running back Miles Sanders punched in one final touchdown in the fourth quarter to secure the win. The Eagles won Super Bowl 52 back in 2018. That year's simulation picked the New England Patriots to win.
Madden simulations over the years have accurately predicted the winner of nearly 70% of the Super Bowls played since 2004, according to Forbes. While Madden tends to be off when it comes to predicting the score, there was one year when its prediction was spot on. Maybe even frighteningly so. The Madden simulation for 2015’s Super Bowl 49 between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks perfectly predicted the final score. It also predicted that the Patriots would pull off a come-from-behind victory, and it even nailed the type of pass play that eventually won the Patriots the game in real life.
Madden is routinely one of the best-selling games in America. Its predictions are fueled by the enormous amount of on-field data the NFL allows EA to access. The data goes well beyond simple box score stats. Since 2014, the NFL has had data tracking tags hidden away in player shoulder pads and all over the field. The tags measure everything, from precise ball and player movement to running speeds. Nearly every on-field movement can be represented by a variety of numbers that not only help teams and players formulate strategies but also helps EA create as realistic a simulation of the sport as possible – a simulation so good it can sometimes predict the winner of the Super Bowl. While Madden is 70% accurate with its Super Bowl predictions overall, it’s only been 50% accurate over the past 10 Super Bowls.
Madden NFL 23 is available now on PC, PS4, PS5, Xbox One, and Xbox Series X/S.