While there's always the chance of another game swooping in and taking the top spot, it's looking increasingly likely that Hogwarts Legacy is going to be the top-selling new game release of 2023. The road to Hogwarts Legacy's release has been equal parts hype and controversy, but assuming Avalanche Software and Warner Bros. Interactive can stick the landing in February, there's a good chance the game will be the best-selling release all year.
Hype has been high for Hogwarts Legacy since the game was first revealed in 2020. While there have been many Harry Potter video games released over the years, most have been film adaptations and cash-grabs. Hogwarts Legacy, for lack of better words, is a proper video game, with a big budget and clearly a lot of love for the source material. It's looking to tell an original story in the Wizarding World and allow Harry Potter fans to live their Hogwarts dreams in an open world setting, which is a clear recipe for financial success.
Hogwarts Legacy gameplay showcases have only served to make Harry Potter fans even more excited about the game. Fans are excited to attend classes at Hogwarts, unravel the mysteries behind the plot, fly over the castle grounds on a broomstick, interact with magical creatures, and square off against other witches and wizards in duels. Of course, there's always the possibility that Hogwarts Legacy will fail to live up to the hype, but it's looking more likely than ever that the game will meet expectations, and that in turn could easily translate into sales success. But even if Hogwarts Legacy falls short with fans and critics, the stars are aligned to ensure that the game could still easily walk out of 2023 as the best-selling new game release of the year.
There May Not Be a New Call of Duty Game This Year
There's a reason why Sony is so afraid about the possibility of Microsoft acquiring Activision Blizzard and gaining control of the company's Call of Duty franchise. Call of Duty is fairly consistently at the top of the sales charts each year, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. The recently released Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, despite releasing to more mixed reviews than its predecessors, has in fact been crowned the best-selling game of 2022.
Chances are good if Activision releases a new full-scale Call of Duty game in 2023 that it too will be the best-selling game of the year over Hogwarts Legacy. However, reports from reputable insiders have suggested that the Call of Duty franchise is taking a break this year. If the reports are to be believed, there will be no new main series Call of Duty game released in 2023, and instead, fans will be treated to premium campaign DLC for Modern Warfare 2. Activision has pushed back against these claims, but a gap year like this would help get the various Call of Duty studios back on track with their development schedules.
A new Call of Duty game has released every single year since Call of Duty 2 in 2005, so no Call of Duty in 2023 would be shocking to see, but understandable considering the circumstances. If Call of Duty was ever going to skip a year, it would be this one, and if it does, it would mean Hogwarts Legacy's biggest potential competitor would be a non-factor.
Hogwarts Legacy is a Multi-Platform Game
It's true that 2023 is stacked with major new game releases, but many of the biggest titles announced for this year so far are restricted to specific platforms. Spider-Man 2 from Insomniac Games will surely be a huge hit, but it's expected to be a PlayStation 5 exclusive, meaning it won't even have the massive PS4 install base to work with like it would if it were a cross-gen release. Starfield is coming to PC and Xbox Series X, and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is a Nintendo Switch exclusive. Hogwarts Legacy is not only a cross-gen release, but it's coming to every major gaming platform there is.
On February 10, Hogwarts Legacy is going to release for PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X. Then, a couple of months later on April 4, those that are still playing on PS4 and Xbox One can see what all the fuss is about. Finally, July 25 will see Hogwarts Legacy drop for the Nintendo Switch. And since the Nintendo Switch is one of the best-selling consoles of all time and has a massive install base of more casual gamers who may be interested in Harry Potter, one has to imagine it will do quite well on Nintendo's home console/handheld hybrid.
Whereas most of the other big new game releases for 2023 are limited, Hogwarts Legacy is coming out for basically every platform. This fact alone will give it a serious leg up over the competition and honestly may well be enough to secure its spot as the top-selling game of 2023.
Hogwarts Legacy Pre-Orders Are Through the Roof
The bulk of Hogwarts Legacy's sales will happen post-launch, but the game has already sold plenty of copies before it's even hit store shelves. Hogwarts Legacy pre-order data from Steam has revealed that the game is being pre-ordered on a large scale through Valve's digital storefront, to the point where it is outpacing the sales of games that are available now. This is a rare thing to see on Steam, but it shows that Hogwarts Legacy is going to have a monumental debut come February 10.
Besides the general hype for the game driving Hogwarts Legacy pre-orders, there's also the early access factor to take into account. Anyone that pre-orders the Hogwarts Legacy Digital Deluxe Edition or Collector's Edition will get 72 hours early access to the game, meaning they can start playing on February 7 instead of February 10. Since Harry Potter fans have been waiting years to play Hogwarts Legacy, it's not surprising at all that many are jumping at the opportunity to play the game early.
Having such a significant number of pre-orders may help create a buffer for Hogwarts Legacy so that even if the game turns out to be lackluster and loses sales from those on the fence, it could still very well be crowned the best-selling game of 2023 by the time it's all said and done.
Hogwarts Legacy Boycotts and Pirating Potential
Hogwarts Legacy's strong pre-orders are also a sign that the game likely doesn't need to worry about pirates causing any significant damage to its sales, though there will definitely be those pirating the game. In fact, there's a good possibility that Hogwarts Legacy will not only be the best-selling game of 2023, but also the most pirated. The dizzying hype behind the game will result in more people pirating it, of course, but there are also those who are pirating it out of protest of Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling.
J.K. Rowling's transphobic comments have formed a dark cloud hanging over Hogwarts Legacy, tainting the game's reputation and stirring up controversy well before it's been released to the public. There are many who have called on Harry Potter fans to boycott the game and pirate it instead. The argument being made is that this will hurt J.K. Rowling's bottom line, though Rowling already has so much money that mass boycotts and pirating likely won't mean much to her financial situation.
Regardless of the actual impact on Rowling's finances, there are those who feel like purchasing Hogwarts Legacy is supporting transphobia. Many will indeed follow through on either pirating Hogwarts Legacy or boycotting it entirely as a result, but even considering these factors, Hogwarts Legacy still seems like the most likely candidate to become the top-selling game of 2023.
Hogwarts Legacy launches February 10 for PC, PS4, and PS5, April 4 for PS4 and Xbox One, and July 25 for Nintendo Switch.