Fallout: New Vegas 2 has been rumored to be in development ever since the first game released back in 2010. The game could be a direct sequel to the events of the first game, but the title could also be used to refer to another spin-off and potentially third-party Fallout game as a spiritual successor.
Some of the rumors have the game being developed by a third-party developer rather than Bethesda Game Studios, just as the original game was developed by Obsidian Entertainment. With years of Fallout: New Vegas 2 rumors, here's the history of the main rumors, and which ones stand up better than others.
New Vegas, Obsidian, And Bethesda
For years it was hoped that Obsidian Entertainment would create Fallout: New Vegas 2, but there are a few key reasons that the original New Vegas development studio is unlikely to return. The release of Fallout: New Vegas caused some controversy when the game scored an 84/100 on review aggregator Metacritic. Obsidian's contract with Bethesda required the game to get an 85/100 in order for Obsidian to gain a bonus. However, the way Metacritic's aggregation worked at the time meant that favorable reviews like 4 stars out of 5 would still drag down the average towards 80/100, even if the same reviewer may have given the game a higher score on a scale from 1 to 100.
In any case, Obsidian missed out the bonus by a single percentage and had to cancel upcoming projects in order to stay afloat. The studio has not worked with Bethesda since then, and the studio's recent RPG, The Outer Worlds, appeared to take direct aim at Fallout's niche hold on the satirical sci-fi market.
Obsidian's upcoming first-person fantasy game, Avowed, appears to be aiming at The Elder Scrolls series in a similar way, again suggesting that a future collaboration between Bethesda and Obsidian is unlikely. However, when Microsoft began acquiring Bethesda's parent company last year, some fans speculated that Bethesda and Obsidian both being owned by Microsoft could make the project possible.
2021 Leaks
In January video game leaker Tyler McVicker, known for his Valve leaks in the past, claimed that he had "a lot" of information on Fallout: New Vegas 2. He then clarified in a follow-up tweet.
In response to one skeptical reply, McVicker said that Obsidian Entertainment "likely won't have anything to do with" the development of Fallout: New Vegas 2. For now, his claims have yet to be substantiated, though many of McVicker's Valve-related leaks have been reliable in the past.
If Fallout: New Vegas 2 is in fact in development, there are some huge questions which remain to be answered. First, it is unknown if Fallout: New Vegas 2 refers to a direct sequel to the events of the original New Vegas, or if the title is being used as a stand-in for a third-party developed spin-off Fallout game set in a new location with a totally original story.
Second, while McVicker claims Obsidian will likely not be involved in the game's development, it is unknown if Fallout: New Vegas 2 will be given to another third-party developer or if Bethesda Game Studios will try to tackle it this time around. It is also unknown if New Vegas 2 would use the engine and assets of Fallout 4, just as the original New Vegas used the engine and many of the assets from Fallout 3.
What is known, however, is that Bethesda is currently developing Starfield, and that Starfield will release before The Elder Scrolls 6. Only a few leaked screenshots from Starfield have been revealed so far, making it likely that the game is still a couple of years away. This has led many to predict that The Elder Scrolls 6 could be as far away as 2026 or even further away. This might make the prediction that Fallout: New Vegas 2 will release in the 2020s far-fetched, especially if a third-party developer doesn't end up being involved. For now, however, Fallout fans have no choice but to wait for confirmation from Bethesda.
Fallout: New Vegas 2 has not been announced.