The Fallout games have been one of Bethesda's flagship franchises for years, but the future of the satirical dystopian series has never been less clear. While there's been no official news from the developer about Fallout 5, this year has seen rumors claiming that both a fifth main Fallout game and Fallout: New Vegas 2 may be in the works. The flurry of accompanying speculation has made things all the more confusing for fans who just want to know when they can next expect to hop in their power armor and set off into the wasteland.
Keeping up with the recent rumors about Fallout 5 can be tough, but it's far from the only challenge fans face. Some rumors are more reliable than others, and to top things off there may be reasons to believe that even the most reliable reports won't matter much when considering some of the recent moves made by Bethesda.
Microsoft, Obsidian, And The Bethesda Schedule Leaks
The year began with some interesting news for Fallout fans. On January 19 video game leaker Tyler McVicker, known for his accurate insider information about Valve and Nintendo in the past, took to Twitter to talk about the future of Fallout.
While giving some fans hope, the Tweet also points to some of the major problems faced by Fallout fans when dissecting supposed leaks. First, there's the question of what meaningfully distinguishes Fallout 5 from Fallout: New Vegas 2. Some would say that Fallout: New Vegas 2 has to be a follow up to the story and setting of Obsidian's 2010 Fallout game.
Others would argue that Fallout 5 is the next Bethesda-developed Fallout game, while Fallout: New Vegas 2 refers to any upcoming Fallout game developed by a third party. McVicker himself has already claimed that Obsidian Entertainment "likely won't have anything to do with" the development of Fallout: New Vegas 2, but it isn't clear if his version of New Vegas 2 refers to a story sequel or just another spin-off.
Speculation that Obsidian could be working on the next Fallout game was fueled towards the end of 2020 by two pieces of news. First was the acquisition of Bethesda's parent studio ZeniMax Media by Microsoft, which already owned Obsidian at the time. Second was the news that Obsidian itself was working on multiple RPG projects, though as of E3 at least one of those has now been confirmed as The Outer Worlds 2.
Starfield's release date was recently confirmed at Bethesda's E3 2021 showcase, with the game launching November 11, 2022. That makes McVicker's timeline roughly accurate so far, although Starfield's release window was among the easiest to predict as the game had already been confirmed as Bethesda Game Studios' next release. Although McVicker's leak is still likely among the most reliable leaks regarding Fallout 5 to come out this year, fans are still left with next to no information about the game.
Even if McVicker's rough timeline for Bethesda releases was correct in January 2021, Bethesda is going through a period of reorientation that could drastically reshape its journey through the next decade. Starfield will be the studio's first new IP in over 25 years, and its reception could have a huge effect on the development of other planned projects. Bethesda may be an RPG giant, but focusing on a new IP is an undoubtedly risky move that may not pay off, especially with Starfield's Xbox exclusivity on consoles.
By the time Starfield releases, the studio may not have even begun working on pre-production for Fallout 5, even if the game was planned to begin development after the release of The Elder Scrolls 6. This could make the future of Fallout the most susceptible to change of any of Bethesda's IPs. Unless a third party is brought in to develop a Fallout game again, the evidence may point to the franchise being on the backburner. Even McVicker's leak only narrows down Fallout 5's potential release to the 2030s, by which time Bethesda and the open-world RPG market could be completely unrecognizable.
The Ben Decker Rumors And Fallout's Future
Back in May, a new round of rumors was sparked when Xbox's Ben Decker told GamesRadar that "we have 23 studios across Xbox and Bethesda, working on Halo, Forza, Fallout, and new IP that we haven't even talked about yet that's gonna blow your mind." Many took this as a slip revealing that a new Fallout game was in development. However, it could just as easily have been a comment on DLC for Fallout 76, like the upcoming return to The Pitt, a third-party Fallout game, or something else. "Working on" is a very loose term, and Decker's comments do not mean that Fallout 5 is in development.
In fact, the evidence seems to point to Fallout 5 being so far down the line and so subject to the development processes and receptions of Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6 that any rumors claiming to know details about the game or a release window are dubious to say the least. It's unlikely that even Bethesda can clearly define the future of the Fallout franchise at this stage, particularly Fallout 5. A third-party Fallout game could be increasingly likely, however, if Bethesda has less and less time to dedicate to Fallout over its schedule for the next decade.
The only thing that seems to be for certain for fans looking forward to Fallout 5 is that they're going to be in for a very long wait. It doesn't seem likely that Bethesda will abandon one of its major IPs entirely, and after the release of both Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6 a new Fallout game does seem like the natural next step. That may even be Bethesda's current plan as the Tyler McVicker leaks suggest, but setting that schedule in stone would likely make the studio too rigid at a time when it may need to be more flexible than ever.
Fallout 5 is not confirmed to be in development.