Xbox Game Studios has a lot of RPGs in development. From Fable to The Outer Worlds 2, Xbox Series X users will have plenty of big-budget RPGs to play in a few years. One RPG that turned heads on announcement was Obsidian Entertainment's other project, Avowed, a new game set in the world of Pillars of Eternity. While Obsidian Entertainment has been tight-lipped about the game, fans may have gotten a release window thanks to a GeForce Now leak filled with notable release dates. The leak puts Avowed's release date around December 7, 2022.

A late 2022 release date would make sense. Avowed was first announced in the summer of 2020, meaning Obsidian will have had two and a half years to finish the game from that point. However, the release date is also interesting in conjunction with other Xbox RPGs. While many have wondered how Avowed will fare alongside The Elder Scrolls 6, now that Bethesda is part of Xbox Game Studios it seems increasingly likely that Elder Scrolls 6 is years away. Instead, Avowed might have a sci-fi rival in the form of Bethesda's Starfield, which currently has a hard release date close the leaked Avowed date.

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The Elder Scrolls 6 is Taking it Slow

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Although Skyrim has proven to have bountiful entertainment value, lots of fans poke fun at Bethesda for repeatedly releasing new Skyrim editions instead of just making another Elder Scrolls game. When The Elder Scrolls 6 releases, it's undoubtedly going to pull in a huge fanbase considering how many people continue to play Skyrim after all these years. Considering the influence Bethesda and The Elder Scrolls have, it's unsurprising that many have already called TES6 a daunting competitor for Avowed.

However, the same GeForce New leaks suggest The Elder Scrolls 6 won't release until early 2024, which is very far from the potential Avowed release date. Even if these dates are just placeholders that indicate windows, that's well over a year after Avowed's theoretical release. If the two games are that far apart, Avowed will have plenty of time to flourish before The Elder Scrolls 6 comes around.

It should also be noted that Phil Spencer said Playground Games' Fable revival will release before The Elder Scrolls 6. Spencer may not have said when either game will release, but considering how long Fable has gone without a confirmed release window, TES6 must be miles away. Fable serves as an important gatekeeper for The Elder Scrolls 6; as long as TES6 keeps its place in line behind Fable, Avowed won't have to worry about Bethesda's fantasy RPG.

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Avowed's True Rival May be Starfield

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That doesn't mean Avowed is without rival. On the contrary, The Elder Scrolls 6 could be the wrong Bethesda game to compare it to. If Avowed releases on December 7 like leaks suggest, it'll be out less than a month after Bethesda debuts its new spacefaring RPG Starfield. If Starfield is anywhere near as ambitious as Bethesda's other franchises, odds are good that many Xbox owners will still be working their way through Starfield by the time Obsidian releases Avowed. That means it might have a much harder time at launch.

At a glance, Starfield seems like an unlikely competitor to Avowed. It's a far-future RPG based on grounded sci-fi, meaning it has few themes and aesthetics in common with Obsidian's game. However, Starfield is a big RPG simply by virtue of coming from Bethesda, which has played a major part in directing the course of the genre over the last few decades. It's a new IP from Bethesda, which will warrant thorough investigation by lovers of Fallout and Elder Scrolls in order to gauge its potential as a new franchise.

Avowed is a little short on the unique context that helps drum up so much Starfield hype. Pillars of Eternity fans look forward to exploring that game's universe again through a new type of game, and Obsidian has a reputation for producing high-quality RPGs, but Avowed continues to draw comparisons to The Elder Scrolls, which makes it harder for the game to establish a unique identity. Because of Starfield's position as a Bethesda newcomer, RPG fans might lean toward that rather than Avowed if the two games release around the same time.

How Avowed Can Still Succeed

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All hope isn't lost for Avowed, of course. If Obsidian can establish ways that Avowed is distinct from its rivals, both mechanically and aesthetically, the game has much better odds at competing. At the time of this writing, Obsidian has revealed almost nothing about Avowed; comparisons to The Elder Scrolls are mostly drawn from the reveal trailer establishing Avowed as a first-person fantasy RPG. Avowed can still distinguish itself by means of innovative new mechanics, a vast setting that rivals the scope of Skyrim, environments unlike anything found in The Elder Scrolls, and more.

Avowed's ultimate fate is hard to predict because of how little is known about the game. While Xbox Game Studios has a lot of RPGs in the works, many of them have progressed in near-silence since they were announced. Avowed, The Elder Scrolls 6, and Fable have all operated behind closed doors, and maybe that's indicative of each studio's intense focus on development. A large, flashy gameplay reveal will certainly help Avowed compete with its potential rival in Starfield, so hopefully Obsidian has something big planned for 2022.

Avowed is in development for PC and Xbox Series X/S.

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