How can a film become the most popular pop-cultural moment of its release window, then be willfully and comfortably forgotten by the entire public? Is there any purpose to piling a sequel on top of something that nobody seems invested in anymore?
James Cameron is generally regarded as an excellent filmmaker. He has Aliens, The Terminator, T2: Judgement Day, Titanic, and more incredible masterworks under his belt, and yet, Avatar sits resolutely next to his name in every internet search term. The film is only interesting to discuss with no reference to its content, and yet it remains at the top of the list for one of the most well-known creative forces in cinematic history.
Why Avatar Doesn't Need A Sequel
It's hard to say with any sense of certainty whether Avatar is a good or a bad film. It doesn't rank highly in either category, and like most movies, it has its advocates and its detractors. Most fans of the film seemed to be perfectly happy to see it once or twice in IMAX, then leave that experience untainted by future viewings. Those who have seen it outside its initial box office window probably did so as a result of one of its many screenings on FX. The film sold around 30 million DVD copies worldwide, which implies that a few people must have it lying around in physical form. Though widely discussed and hugely popular at the time, interest has faded — the film dropped on Disney+ with little to no fanfare. Public discussion of the film in recent years has been limited to the aforementioned interest in the public's lack of interest, and ongoing surprise that Cameron and company are going through with the sequel.
Making Avatar 2 is a strange move, because nobody really needs a sequel to Avatar. Is it anyone's favorite film? Did it speak to anyone's very soul? Was the film an important moment in anyone's growth? Probably not, but that's true of a ton of blockbuster films. There's a lot of talk nowadays about big-budget movies turning into theme park rides, but if there's one project that embodies the concept, it's Avatar. Theme park rides don't typically get sequels, let alone four of them — Cameron isn't just planning Avatar 2. There are hundreds of thousands of films that are loved by millions that couldn't get a single sequel made, and do perfectly well as stand-alone stories. Does the cinematic landscape really need four new versions of the story that the original film told? Of course not, but the film made a dizzying amount of money, so of course, it will be getting a sequel.
Why It's Getting One Anyway
It's clear that Avatar means something to James Cameron. The project began life as an 80-page treatment in 1994. It was meant to come out immediately after Titanic, but the filmmaking technology wasn't where Cameron wanted it to be. He took a hiatus of over twenty years, appearing only in a couple of documentaries in the meantime. This film was a huge labor, using groundbreaking effects and new technology that revolutionized the medium. It is that passion and innovation and tremendous financial expense that turned the film into a hit, but all of that goodwill vanishes as soon as anyone sits down to watch the film.
The heart poured into Avatar does not translate onto the big screen. Every viewer who sat down to watch it could easily compare it to a hundred other works, from dozens of war movies to Disney's version of Pocahontas. There's nothing original about the story; the originality is all in the technical and design work. It's a very skilled tech demo, but thirteen years later, most audiences are past being impressed by CGI.
Graphical tech has certainly advanced since 2009, but a thousand other movies are pushing it to its limits. The Marvel and DC efforts of the day will be its main comparison point, but there are more original and interesting films being crafted by more experimental filmmakers. Avatar works largely for lack of challenging ideas. It feels focused tested, group approved, and carefully managed to appeal to the largest number of people. That's part of what makes it unmemorable, and what makes a sequel such a terrible idea. The last thing Avatar needs is a full recounting of everything that happened in the first movie. It's better remembered as a series of lights and colors vaguely wrapped around a ton of solid designs. The sequel is unlikely to improve the original; instead, it'll likely only become a funny curiosity.
It remains to be seen whether Avatar 2 (or 3, 4, or 5) will actually come out. They've been teased for over a decade, and have remained largely a topic for jokes the entire time. If it does make it to the big screen, it'll be interesting to see whether it has anything comparable to its predecessors' success. Avatar 2 could be a new Waterworld-style over-expensive flop and change the blockbuster scene forever. It could also shock the world by being an incredible film, overshadowing the 2009 original with sheer quality. But it probably won't be either. Like Avatar before it, Avatar 2 seems destined to dominate the conversation for around four months, rake in millions, then disappear from our minds forever.