Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania will be out in three weeks, meaning analysts are already churning out projections trying to estimate this Marvel Studios blockbuster’s earnings, and it's almost a given that this will be Paul Rudd's most-watched solo MCU adventure.
Unlike Ant-Man's past two MCU entries, the studio is pulling out all the stops for a film that’s meant to kick off Phase Five and properly introduce Kang the Conqueror as the franchise’s main villain for the coming years. With that in mind, Ant-Man 3's reported budget of $200 million surpasses that of the first two movies, hence why Marvel Studios and Disney will be expecting Rudd to be an even bigger draw this time.
According to Boxoffice Pro, interest in Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania should see the film earn anywhere between $96-131 million from the domestic box office alone, with a projected total of $249-347M on the horizon. While those numbers would eclipse the opening weekend for the first Ant-Man ($57.22M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.81M), the same way Iron Man and Thor's third entries did, they would still see Ant-Man 3 lagging behind the results of all of Marvel Studios' offerings in 2022. This includes Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187.4M), Thor: Love and Thunder ($144.2M) and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($181.3m).
These estimates should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when published weeks before the film’s premiere. It might also be worth noting that last year’s MCU flicks exceeded their opening weekend projections. However, on a global scale, unlike every other Marvel Studios movie since 2021, one thing Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will have going for it is the added boost of Chinese moviegoers after it was announced that Ant-Man 3 would end China's Marvel movie shadow ban.
Overall, Ant-Man movies have always been good business for Marvel Studios, considering the superhero’s budget has fallen on the lower end of the company standards for spending. Yet expectations are high because Ant-Man 3 is being labelled as the movie that will open up the MCU's Multiverse. Even then, it looks like the threat of Jonathan Majors' Kang in the Ant-Man 3 is still not enough to convince audiences of Ant-Man's appeal compared to Doctor Strange, Thor, and Black Panther.
The CGI in the first two Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania trailers was criticized by some fans, but the addition of beloved characters like MODOK could help turn this movie into another pleasant Ant-Man surprise for Marvel Studios. So yes, “Look Out for the Little Guy!”
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will release in theaters on February 17, 2023.
Source: Boxoffice Pro