The Wii U’s upcoming launch towards the end of this year is a hot topic for industry prognosticators – as video games have grown into a mainstream pastime, so has investing in them. From a sales standpoint, the Nintendo Wii has upended its competition across the globe; but, its lack of third-party support and a waning focus on what many consider to be “hardcore” gaming have fractured the system and the manufacturer from the core of the industry.
It’s a reputation that Nintendo will have to repair if the Wii U has aspirations of going toe to toe with Microsoft and Sony – something Nintendo of America President Reggie Fils-Aime has been adamant about in the company’s recent press conferences.
We came away encouraged in our impressions of the Wii U during E3 last year, and its unique touchscreen capabilities as well as improved graphics will give it a fighting chance out of the gate in 2012. But how will its power, compared to the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, stack up when the “Durango” and PS4 are released? How affordable will it be? And will Nintendo’s launch date gamble damage the company? Michael Pachter doesn’t sound so keen on the whole thing.
Speaking on his “Pach Attack” show over the weekend, the Webush Morgan Securities analyst and budding verb generator asserted that the Wii U’s price point could cause Nintendo to “Dreamcast themselves” – a reference to the ill-fated system whose termination punctuated the end of Sega’s run as a console maker in 2001. Pachter believes that the system is overdue by several years, and that it won’t be cheap enough now to ward off consumers saving up for an Xbox 720 or PlayStation 4.
Check out the full Pach-Attack video below (which also includes the analyst’s insights into other industry questions) – followed by the most relevant quotes from Pachter:
“I think that if in fact it’s a lot like an Xbox 360 in terms of graphics, frame rate and control scheme, then it’s probably not going to sell well unless it’s priced a lot cheaper, and I don’t think they’re launching the console at $150.”
“So, yeah I think they are about to Dreamcast themselves. I don’t think Wii U is going to be as popular as probably Nintendo thinks it’s going to be.”
The cause of the Dreamcast’s downfall was a major nail in Sega’s coffin as a console maker, but the reasons for its failure are still widely held in debate. Whereas the Dreamcast was believed to be ahead of its time, Nintendo is playing catch-up in a lot of ways with the current generation.
Their larger concern should be that they don’t “Wii” themselves, releasing a console with middling processing power and a steep development learning curve that third parties abandon once Microsoft and Sony come calling with their newest tech. Despite Grand Theft Auto V and Ninja Gaiden 3 being confirmed for the system, third party support looks again to be an uphill battle for Nintendo. Nintendo succeeded with the Wii by bringing in a lot of casual gamers; however, these casual gamers may not be as interested in the Wii U – since they may have moved on to upgraded console tech or, on the flip side, might not be interested in another console at all.
In any case, though, we’ll have a clearer picture on the Wii U’s future in the next few years as Microsoft and Sony start to show their hands and sales figures roll in. How do you think the system will fare against the Xbox 360, PS3, and next-gen consoles? Is Pachter right in being so glum?
The Wii U releases worldwide towards the end of 2012.
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Source: GameTrailers [via GoNintendo]
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they should just stop with the motion sensors. go back to gamecube formula. That was my first console and it was a lot of fun.
I agree with the no motion sensors bit, but the gamecube was not a huge step forward from the N64, which had amazing games
You must be thirteen years old jack.
I think Jack is right actually. Motion sensors sucks.
I didn’t say he was wrong I said he was thirteen because game cube was his first system.
nah im 21. just got into gaming late. i went outside as a kid
That’s fine. I just bought a Dreamcast last week.
…LOL. Just LOL.
So his grand logic is that if they don’t sell it for $150, it’ll Dreamcast itself? I love his ‘logical processes’.
that sums it up prerfect actully. nintendo is allways playing catchup they are about 12 years behind in technology compared to MS and sony. this is there lasyt chance and they messed it up royaly a ps4 compared to this thing is like saying iran will beat america in war.
The unannounced system with unannounced specs will beat the Wii U and its unannounced specs.
Logic = None.
Logic does not exist on the internet
Patcher is an idiot , he is more often wrong than he is right !!! Nintendo has core games that people cannot live without !!! He said Wii would flop! Nintendo inovates way more than sony and mIcrosoft … And specs aren’t everything !! To rule out Nintendo Is just folsh !!!
@ KanTstandYa — 12 years behind? How so? What sources do you have? If you can provide I would like to read them. Also, this is what was said about the Wii before it was released. Alot of people thought Nintendo was done. I dare say Nintendo has more surprises up their sleeves then they let on… We shal wait and see!
lol just lol… the wii is more like a motion control gamecube with a few better hardware components. Gamecube came out in 2001 with hardware from early 2000 so yeah, 12 years behind. just sad nintendo, 2012 and your current hardware (I.E Wii 3ds) are weak
In graphical terms they are only a couple of years behind on the wii (Mario Galaxy is stunning looking) and in terms of innovation and gameplay, they are constantly being copied, for example; Motion Controlls – wii, shoulder buttons – SNES, analogue stick – N64, Touchscreen -NDS, 3D Gaming – Virtual boy attempt, 3DS, Handheld gaming – gameboy and many more innovations have been cloned by other gaming companies. If i remember correctly the gamecube was more powerful then its competitors.
So, technology from 2000 is 12 years behind Sony and Microsoft, eh? Meaning that the PS3 and Xbox 360 came out in 2012? Or, were designed in 2012 and have yet to be released? That is amazing! Dude, seriously! You’re not gonna believe this, and it sounds crazy, but I think I’ve been living in some kind of time distortion field or something, where this year has somehow been six years long. And there was… there was an island. And some black smoke. And… polar bears, I think? Oh, and this really weird hatch! And there was a Playstation 3 down there! I played that thing for five long years down in that hatch, taking breaks every 108 minutes to type some numbers into a computer, ‘cuz a video down there told me that if I didn’t do that, then my PS3 would get something called a “yellow light of death.”
But then there was an earthquake and I had to stop playing, and the contingency plan said I had to go down into this really bright cave. So I did, and then I moved a big rock, and then I died, with this really friendly dog beside me. And then I woke up, this morning. I had assumed it was all a dream, but still, I was positive that I’d had my PS3 for about five years. I… I really don’t know what to make of all this.
Why does this guy matter, and why is it news every time he reiterates his “Nintendo is doomed” point?
There’s certainly cause for concern, but the console is sure to have a strong first year, pre-720 and PS4; and regardless of what happens after that, the fact is Nintendo’s still got Nintendo’s IPs. So long as they continue to make great Mario and Zelda games, I think they’ll be okay. That’s how they survived the Gamecube generation, after all. I know the power disparity didn’t exist in that generation, but I don’t think that’s really as big a deal as Pach asserts, anyway. Who’s ever bought a Nintendo console for its great third-party multi-platform titles? It’s all about the exclusives, which will still be there regardless of how powerful this console is.
lol Ps3 is @ $250 for a 160 GB system, that’s a great deal since it’s a blu-ray player multimedia console. Xbox 360 is I believe @ around $200 which still does some of the Ps3 functions. wii u doesn’t even play blu-ray’s, it uses an outdated gimmicky ipad controller with a one-touch capacitive screen, it will barely come with any internal memory and let’s face it: nintendo isn’t exactly “hardcore” with the gaming community and it will remain that way for years, regardless of what the silly nintendo fanboys say. Unless this system is @ $200, plays blu-ray, has better specs and a ton more games and content than the Ps3/360, it’s gonna flop. 3ds was failing @ $250. nintendo was foolish to think people would buy into an expensive “3D” DS lol.
Regardless, Pc pwns all
Source of barely any internal memory?
The 3DS was a portable system. $250 for a portable console is a tad high, but even so, the 3DS at its WORST point was still outselling the Vita, by a 4:1 ratio. So saying that unless the Wii U is $200 because “the PS360 is $250″ Nintendo will die, is a load of bullcrap.
I believe Nintendo has stated that the U won’t have a hard drive; just a bit of flash memory, like the budget-model Xbox.
I see. Is that really that huge of a problem? I actually prefer buying SD cards for memory…they’re cheaper overall for the system anyway. Well, we’ll just have to see what happens come E3.
GC44:
Well, those console hard drives are definitely overpriced, but they do allow for game installation, which is nice for reducing load times. I don’t know if Wii U’s disc-based games will install data onto SD cards, but I doubt they will — either because it’s impossible, or just because developers will assume that not everybody will have big enough SD cards available.
But to answer your question, no, it’s not really a huge problem. Significant, though.
Good job ignoring my point about exclusives. You’re right about 3D having been a dumbass gimmick, which it always was, and Nintendo was simply too late in getting the 3DS out while 3D was still a big, wildly and inexplicably popular trend. And I also have some reservations about the touch screen controller, but it’s still way too early to pronounce it dead on arrival. And I shouldn’t have to point this out, since we’re talking about the successor to the Wii, but being “not exactly ‘hardcore’” isn’t such a heavy albatross these days. Especially when you’ve got the built-in fanbase that Nintendo’s franchises have.
About the 3DS being a gimmick, it isn’t. The vita is more of a gimmick. Those who just observe and read biased reports don’t get it. The 3DS was a great innovation from the start, though a bit delayed. With the adaption of the eShop, Netflix, 3D Video recording, and better first and third party games with enhanced graphics in 3D, not to mention the 20 exclusive virtual console games reimbursement for those who bought the system @$250, I’d say it is more than a gimmick.
I didn’t say the 3DS was a gimmick; I said 3D is a gimmick. Neither the 3DS nor the Vita are gimmicks in themselves.
@Androol: Literally everything and anything used to sell a product is a gimmick. I’ve found that 3D is actually a very good gimmick, enhancing the game for the better like in Super Mario 3D Land.
GC44:
I’d say a gimmick is a more ancillary addition, intended more to just grab people’s attention, rather than actually improving gameplay. Superior graphical power isn’t a gimmick, nor is blu-ray capability, nor was Xbox Live. All of those are/were system-sellers, though.
And I disagree that 3D is a good gimmick, but that’s just my opinion. Obviously a lot of people pay extra to see their movies in 3D, so they would probably agree with you. But it’s important to note that Nintendo kind of missed the boat in terms of the mass interest in 3D, which was demonstrably waning by the time the 3DS came out.
Definition of a Gimmick – Noun: A trick or device intended to attract attention, publicity, or business.
So Blu-Ray/Graphics are gimmicks as well as 3D/Motion control.
GC44:
I think you’re misreading that definition as “a device intended to attract business,” which can translate to anything from “advertising” to “a product that is for sale.” You can’t read a definition in its broadest possible interpretation, or the word becomes practically meaningless. In this case, “trick” is an important part of that definition.
Here’s what Wikipedia says: “In marketing language, a gimmick is a unique or quirky special feature that makes something “stand out” from its contemporaries. However, the special feature is typically thought to be of little relevance or use. Thus, a gimmick is a special feature for the sake of having a special feature.”
Anyway, since we’re arguing about my usage of the word in particular, I was using it in the sense to which that Wikipedia article pertains. So now you know where I’m coming from.
You must have the same crystal ball that Pachter has. I’d take it back and ask for a refu… Wait a sec…Michael? Is that you???
Oh look, another doomsaying analyst. That’s something new. >_>
And it’s Pachter, so it really isn’t newsworthy.
Sega “Dreamcasted” itself by screwing gamers over, time and time again. They released ridiculous add-on components for waining consoles, with no software support and inferior products. By the time they got their act together (Dreamcast), gamers had abandoned them for being burned too many times. Abysmal management and terrible marketing decisions doomed Sega.
As long as Nintendo keeps delivering quality products and releasing games that people want to play, I think it will always find an audience. Was there a lot of horrible, shovelware crap on the Wii and DS? Absolutely! However, if you pick through the garbage you will find plenty of gems worthy of the price for admission.
Pachter’s a joke. Why anyone listens to him is beyond me. Every time he opens his mouth it’s either a contradiction or just plain wrong(and not just about Nintendo either). “I’m not going to predict it’s demise until I know pricing and features.” He already has predicted Ninty’s demise, MANY times. Nintendo is “toast”, “in disarray”, they “blew it”, they “won’t return a profit”. And that just goes to show that he knows absolutely NOTHING. The man clearly has issues with The Big N. His Mom must have bought him an Atari 7800 for Christmas instead of an NES.
Truth of the matter is that devs abandoned the Dreamcast because games were so easily copied and pirated… you would get one or two kids in every school that would buy the games and copy them and sell them for pocket change.
The truth of the matter is while it did suffer a piracy problem, that alone was not the main contributing factor to it’s demise. Game devs, just like gamers were sick and tired of getting burned by Sega. MANY devs had games in progress for the Saturn when Sega up and announced the Dreamcast. Meaning, they were sinking money into properties made for a dead console. Meaning, they were pissed. There were many contributing factors to Sega’s home console collapse. However, piracy being the #1 downfall of the Dreamcast is just a popular myth IMO. The PS1 was rampant with piracy, but we all know how well Sony turned out. The most pirated home game console? The Nintendo Wii.
the wii’s grpahics where on par with a supernintendo or at best a n64. so i thik 12 years is being kind. and yes they started building the xbox360 in 2002 2003 at the latest didnt release till 2006. so if u think about it nintendo is about 14 years behind. the wii U would have been close to the ps3 or 360 if they released it in 2006. but its 2012 people. that graphic demo they showed off would have impressed me in 2006 but now come on. the next xbox or PS will be truly stunning and true next gen. if u think that the wii U will even put up a fight u r sadly mistaken. thats like someone saying that there n64 is better than my ps3.
Go Kan! You tell those numbers who’s boss!
….i prefer my n64 to my ps3…….
I’d take fun and engaging over pretty graphics but s*** gameplay anyday.
Please show me the exact specs of the Wii U that you’re basing your opinion on.
If you can’t do that, then get your head out of your keister and shaddup.
Wow, its like few people here have a memory that goes back any further than November 2006.
Before Wii, the performance of Nintendo consoles had ALWAYS been on par with the major competition each generation where Nintendo had a home console on the market.
Nintendo might be a bit gimmicky but they still make the best and most original games. Thing is Nintendo has been making game consoles long before Sony and Microsoft. So stop calling us fanboys
This guy is such an A-hole, … almost everything he predicted this gen blew up in his face. Please stop printing this idiots words, they don’t count, and they are wrong 98% of the time.
This is the same guy that said the Wii was a gimmick (it wasn’t) and that the sales would dip by Christmas of ’07…I mean ’08…I meant to say ’09…Whoops
Nintendo has always had great systems, and the key to their success has to be in their ability to innovate and create memorable characters that we love. I don’t think that they will “Dreamcast” themselves, and the only reason that the system will do bad from a business standpoint is the lack of third party support to make games that appeal to “hardcore” gamers.
I’ve played video games ever since I was little, and I feel that there is a big disconnect between me and modern day “gamers” that only appreciate a game console for its graphical capability. I’ve always judged a game by its gameplay, and not by its graphics. It’s my opinion that new gamers are ignorant and talk trash about other consoles without really taking the time to play games on the system and appreciate the games for their gameplay. If I said that the Xbox 360 was terrible, I would certainly get a lot of hate for saying it. Sure, the Wii’s controls feel a little gimmicky, and it’s clear who their target audience is, but that does not mean that the console was bad by any means.
They have a strong third party line up, and I believe the console will be successful as long as they maintain it and push out quality games that appeal to all types of gamers. But don’t judge a book by its cover, you might be surprised in what you find inside.
…i agree……
AGREED! I don’t see the Wii-U living up to most people’s expectations, but I don’t think Nintendo is out of this fight yet. The only thing that could “destroy” Nintendo is if in 2013, the 720 & PS4 release at low prices with a strong lineup. and by low prices, i mean in the $300-$400 price range. I think people would support paying a little extra for a higher quality console that is capable of more.
Also, (this is a big thing for me, I’m not sure about anyone else) the online network has GOT to be spot on. I prefer XBL to PSN, but it’s just a matter of preference. Nintendo has announced their “Nintendo Network,” and if it is easy to work with (i.e. easy to find friends, easy to invite, easy to chat, etc.), it COULD have a chance in the next-gen.
If recent rumors are true about the Wii-U, the Wii-U is being designed to compete with current-gen consoles. Well if that’s true, I’m not sure if Nintendo realizes that this generation will be over within a year or two of the Wii-U’s release. What will they do then? Release a new console?
I fear for Nintendo, because I really love their first party games. If they were, however, to drop out of the console race, how awesome would it be for Nintendo to become a third party developer and make Mario/Zelda/Metroid games for Xbox and PS?
One could only hope Nintendo will Dreamcast itself. Can you imagine playing Mario, Zelda and Metroid games on PS and Xbox systems. I’m all for it. Even though the wii is amazingly cheap, I still have not been able to bring myself to purchase one. I just don’t see paying that much for a system with only 3 good Franchises. I have however gone through 2 PS3′s and 2 360′s both worth every penny.
I agree with Pachter. The new Wii U system is going to fail. The Wii was a brand new idea to video gaming, bringing casual gamers in with the motion sensing and movement games. The Wii U doesn’t promise anything as big as the step it took when the Wii was unleashed. Nowadays, most Wii units are collecting dust from non-use. Casual gamers are using their iPads and Kindle Fires to play games. Or they’ve started using their friends’ Kinect for a better motion experience. Wii U is going to cause Nintendo to hemorrhage money, just like the 3DS.
Please show me your magic crystal ball of gaming, I’d love to see what it has to say.