As we near the end of this extremely protracted console cycle it’s fitting that an industry that has been on the rise for quite some time would start to see a downward trend. Though sales are still strong for individual titles like Call of Duty or Mass Effect, the software sales sector as a whole is registered an unfortunate downward trajectory.
There are still plenty of exciting releases on the horizon from Halo 4 to Assassin’s Creed 3, but neither of those have the kind of all encompassing wait that something like Grand Theft Auto 5. In fact, if Grand Theft Auto 5 were to release in 2012, most figure it has a very real chance of overthrowing Black Ops 2 as the highest selling game released this year.
Unfortunately, according to some business analysts, even the release of Grand Theft Auto 5 won’t be enough to pull software sales into the black – and that’s operating under the assumption that the game will release this year.
Since the game’s launch trailer literally nothing has been shown of the game to give any indication how much progress Rockstar has made, and only recently did we get a hint that maybe Gamescom would be the place where more info is released.
Nevertheless Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst Colin Sebastian believes that even if Grand Theft Auto 5 were to be counted among 2012′s releases, it wouldn’t be enough to shift the downward trend of the market.
“I am not confident that it will be out this year, and even if it did, we would still likely see a modest decline in console software sales. Given the current momentum of the market, I doubt any major releases, even one of GTA V’s size, would push the physical markets back into the positives.”
We are at an interesting crossroads of sorts, and will continue to move further and further into unknown territory as gamers anxiously await the announcement of Microsoft and Sony’s next-gen consoles. There are plenty of releases were getting excited over in the coming years, from BioShock Infinite to The Last of Us, but apparently it will be a new set of platforms that really turns things around.
Do you think that Grand Theft Auto 5 will release this year? What title or event do you think has the best chance of putting software sales back in the black?
Source: Venture Beat
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“As we near the end of this extremely protracted console cycle…”
It’s been about 6 years. What, do you want a new console generation every 3 years?
“There are still plenty of exciting releases on the horizon from Halo 4 to Assassin’s Creed 3, but neither of those have the kind of all encompassing wait that something like Grand Theft Auto 5.”
True, but those games are very close to it.
With Black Ops 2, Assassin’s Creed 3, Resident Evil 6, Far Cry 3, Pokemon Black 2 and White 2 (their North American release), Halo 4, and Borderlands 2 releasing yet this year, I don’t think software sales will be hurting. Not to mention WWE 13, FIFA 13, NBA 2K13, Madden NFL 13, NHL 13, Transformers: Fall of Cybertron, PlayStation All-Stars Battle Royale, Guild Wars 2, Need for Speed: Most Wanted, Hitman: Absolution, and many, many more.
what Matt said
Thank you.
none of the game u listed has the marketing pull of grand theft auto not one
Did I claim that any of them did? The answer is no.
And really? Not one? How about a game that goes by the name of Call of Duty: Black Ops II? Modern Warfare 3 was the biggest entertainment launch of all time, and Black Ops II will likely be even bigger. It’s sales will probably exceed GTA V’s.
Halo does. So does Black Ops and Assassins Creed.
Guild Wars 2 doesn’t really have any bearing on the console market since it isn’t really a console.
You’re right, but it’s a still a big game release nonetheless.
I THINK THERE WRONG I THINK GRANDTHEFT AUTO 5 WILL DO FREAKING GREAT I THINK ITS LOTS OF PEOPLE OUT THERE WAITING FOR IT I WAS EXCITED ABOUT DONT WORRY BOUT THE SELLS I THINK THEY WILL DO AWSOME !!!! DO U AGREE OR DISAGREE WIT ME PEOPLE ***
Take off the goddamn caps lock. But yes, I agree with you.
GRANDTHEFT AUTO 5 IM WAITING FOR U !!! #1 FAN
I don’t think GTA5 will release this year, no. I might be wrong, but my impression is that Rockstar doesn’t usually have a particularly quick turnaround between announcing a title and releasing it. And iirc, GTA5 was announced after Bioshock 3 and Tomb Raider, both of which are releasing next year.
Anyway, it doesn’t make sense to me that software sales would wane now, when the installed bases for all consoles are the biggest they’ve ever been, and release schedules are as full as they’ve ever been (not counting Wii, obviously). Software sales should wane when release schedules get thin, when new hardware is visible on the horizon, etc. A downturn right now doesn’t make sense. Not to mention Matt’s list of upcoming AAAs.
If I recall correctly, software sales started declining after 2008. Not by much though.
No, that can’t be right? Lol maybe 2010? Idr.
the problem is that gamers in this restricted economy can’t afford to buy all of those fantastic games, personally I usually buy one or two games a year, because that’s all I can afford. Even if there is an incredibly popular game is it really pulling in revenue from a source that has not already been accessed? I have no research or anything to back this up but i imagine that gamers are a relatively static source of revenue
There is some truth to that, but there are many gamers out there who are able to afford lots of games. There’re also several small game reviewers who don’t get free copies of games and have to buy them. Plus, for gamers that want several new/upcoming games but can only afford a few, they can/will buy the games that they didn’t get later on. More big releases does, in fact, equal more money for the industry.
well the average gamer is said ot be around 25 yrs old and most people around that age bracket usually have a job to help support themselves, so i dont see money as the main issue towards a decline in game sales. most kids these days get whatever they want for birthdays, christmas etc anyways so those spoilt prebs dont have to worry about missing out on their 1st kill streak in BO2, or being first to upload a video of an assassination in ac3
the only ones that wouldn’t be able to afford full retail games would be adults with families (that prioritise their family ahead of gaming) and college students (like myself) that dont work and are studying full time.
gat5 = better looking version of san andreas, and you kids are to f***ing blind to see that (partly b/c i doubt any of you have played it).
gta5 is not the most hyped game to be announced, sure preb freaks are wetting their pants over it but that doesn’t mean it has as much anticipation as *shudders* the new CoD or something good like ac3, halo 4, borderlands 2 and the others everyone has listed. just b/c you dont hear form those other big titles doesn’t mean they aren’t marketed or acknowledged by gamers.
i recently played gta4 to see what all the hype was about and damn does that game suck, not only is the cover system, shooting and driving haven’t evolved since gta3 (and the ones after it), but the visuals are hardly anything to get excited about, not to mention the boring and tedious narrative.
they need to stop making these poor HD remakes and actually make a worthy successor in the franchise b/c like i said, most the gta games are just slight updates from their predecessors (except gta3 and san andreas).
Couldn’t you argue that AC3, Halo 4, Borderlands 2, etc… are just better looking versions of the games that came before them? We haven’t even seen a single second of gameplay from GTA V so it’s pretty unfair to write it off based on a trailer.
You could. In fact, I would. And yes to that second sentence as well.
Well, actually I wouldn’t argue that, normally; but if we’ve gotta get into this “nothing has changed” debate for some big-name sequels and not others… pfft. All the major franchises maintain some level of stasis, but GTA is no worse than most others in that regard.
@ anthony
yes we have, most of that trailer was made of in-game footage. what we saw in that trailer is more then likely what the final product will look like (maybe a little more polished, but not by much). it will be like sand andreas was to vice city.
and yes the games that i mentioned do look a lot better then their predecessors simply b/c the developers of those games have put time and effort into them and dont just rely on their ‘reputation’ and ‘fans’ to sell… *cough* blizzard, rock star, bethesda*cough*.
@atg
suck my third leg preb.
Oh, so that’s why Rockstar has been developing GTA V for 4 years? Because they rely on their reputation? Is that why Bethesda worked on Skyrim for 5 years? If they did rely on their reputation, they would be pushing out games every 2 years, not every 5. That way they would make more money. But they actually improve their games and take their time to do it so fans will pleased with it. They’re not IW or Treyarch.
you honestly believe something as disgusting as skyrim has been in works for over 5 years ? there is no effort put into the animation, textures, level designs, combat or music/sound effects, voice work or narrative.
same thing for gta4, the same issues that exist in previous entires exist in gta 4 as well, so explain to me how that game was in works for however many years you say it was. just b/c there has been a certain amount of years between one game and another doesn’t mean that the studio has been working on the sequel for that long. some studios actually give themselves a year or so break (pre-production) before starting work on the next title (they are human after all).
And in that trailer, none of it was gameplay footage. It was all cinematic. It showed what you’ll be doing, but it didn’t show how you’ll be doing it, seeing as how the camera was cinematic.
GTA hasn’t evolved sinced GTA3? From GTA3 to GTA4? Just want to make sure I’m reading right? Lol
I fail to see where someone said it would look like s***, and many, many, MANY people have played san andreas lol. San andreas is still the best gta out there
Damn right. Who cares if it’s a better looking version of SA, you know how long I’ve been waiting for a HD release? I want that more than a whole new GTA.
I have some doubts it’ll be out this year Rockstar mainly releases their games in the spring. Though GTA III was released in October 2001. We’ll see