The all too popular Call of Duty franchise is no stranger to harsh critics. Even members of its own fan base have been vocal about the rinse, wash, repeat cycle that has started becoming increasingly apparent with every new installment that the series sees. Now, Call of Duty followers across the globe are preparing for Black Ops 2, and despite the minor graphical updates and other refinements, some analysts are saying that Activision’s juggernaut may have “peaked.”
Analyst Ben Schachter from Macquarie Securities certainly believes this to be the case, and he doesn’t think the series will continue on the upward trend it’s followed for the past several years. Schater stated that his company has “significant concerns that CoD may have peaked in 2011,” and he lists several reasons why this may be the case. Everything from rapid currency fluctuations to a general industry sales decline are said to impact the blockbuster FPS, and the fact that Modern Warfare 3 failed to beat Black Ops in sales is another indication that things are no longer on the up.
Not to be outdone by Schachter, the infamous Michael Pachter chimed in on the topic, and agreed with the Macquarie Securities analyst.
“[CoD] was (and probably still is) the best multiplayer experience available, [but] Battlefield multiplayer probably cannibalized it a little bit, and this year, Halo and Medal of Honor could cannibalize CoD a bit more. Next year, another Battlefield, plus the Respawn and Bungie games, probably cannibalize it a bit more.”
“There’s nothing wrong with 22 million units sold, or with 19 million or 16 million. CoD will remain the best selling game (at least until GTA) and Activision shouldn’t be concerned if it loses some players at the margin. They created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them.”
Yet another analyst, RW Baird’s Colin Sebastian, also believes that the franchise has reached its climax.
“… If new consoles are coming next year, that is typically a disruptive period for game sales, and that could drive sales lower as well, at least temporarily. The bigger question I think is whether the franchise (or any franchise) is in a continuous period of decline. Personally, I don’t know which competing console title would take so much share from Call of Duty.”
Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 will without a doubt be one of the biggest selling video games (if not the biggest selling video game) of 2012, but each of these analysts makes a good point. Interest for the series has declined according to long-term sales numbers, and interest in MW3‘s downloadable content is not up to par with the DLC of past CoD titles either.
On a brighter note, there are currently 2.3 million premium Call of Duty Elite members, as well as an additional 12 million users who have registered for the service. Judging on the program’s apparent success, it’s unlikely that Activision will be scrapping the fan-favorite program anytime soon. Still, even with declining sales numbers, an abundance of first-person shooters, and fluctuating dollar values, Activision will find success with Call of Duty for many more years to come.
The next CoD game, Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, will launch on November 13, and its release should provide valuable insight into whether or not the franchise can maintain its notoriety for demolishing sales records.
-
Follow me on Twitter @TheRileyLittle.
What You May Not Know About The ‘Xbox One’ [Updated] 
Xbox One: Watch The Next-Gen Xbox Presentation Here! 
Electronic Arts Engineer Blasts the Wii U 
Rare Bringing ‘Historic’ Franchise to Xbox One; Reveal at E3 2013 
Loading ...
It peaked at Modern Warfare, five years ago.
agreed. the series is dumb now. “They created a phenomenon, and others are emulating them.” <— i find that comment a bit hard to believe. the BF series has been doing their own thing well before COD turned into the COD MWF series. Im not saying BF is 10239203 times better but DICE has always been doing their own thing.
Couldn’t Agree more. Been trying to get that point acrost peoples heads since WaW. I’ve played battlefield 2, Bad Company, Medal of Honor(it was more like battlefield), and BF3
what the reject means is that people look at the trashy franchises sale and think that they can make that kind of money if they emulate CoD’s ‘play style’, just look at crysis 2′s mp, far cry 3′s mp. the mp in these 2 games whilst different shares a lot of similarities with CoD (mainly pacing of matches).
this trashy series has really hurt the industry in that developers are suffering b/c this franchise has been ‘dominating’ the market thus other dev’s aren’t making as much as they should be. i blame, marketing hype, peer pressure (kids), lazy gamers who dont want to think to much and just want to ‘have fun’ and the general attitude of gamers who will buy anything b/c ‘everyone else is’.
Did you not understand this article at all? These analysts are saying that the sales peaked at MW3. They believe Black Ops II won’t sell as many copies.
i think the series wont peak until the next gen consoles. its a fun, fast paste experience and my first cod game was mw2 and that game is hated but i loved it even though people hate it, i spent hours a day playing that game. I think people are just tired if the game, these are call of duty yet people believe that the games should all be different but its a series. Ive havent had much fun playing cod as i used to in the mw2 days (remember its my first) but i still enjor it when the lag compensation doesnt affect me but i think im used to cod and so are people thats why it isnt much fun anymore but new people that that never played cod before would love it like i did with mw2.
They killed themselves by haveing it a annually made, different developers or not, these games could have been out every 2 years, nothing will be the cod killer, only activision will kill it because they dont listen to the fans. though it is becoming less popular people still buy it and if black ops 2 fails then it definitely over. I think hte only next huge cod will be for the next gens and will probably make even more if it manages to be released with the consoles (probably xbox not ps4)
Not sure how they aren’t listening to their fans. Selling 10 million copies sure make it seem like people don’t have a problem with it being annualized. And why not make it every year. The point of a business is to make money and it is doing very well for them. I don’t play call of duty. Never owned one but I think BLOPS2 will be the peak.
if you played it you would understand lol.
Shits butt
$%&* COD it has become total BS since COD 4.
Well glad to see the franchise is taking a new turn.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.
OK let’s get something straight. 10 milliom CASUAL gamers buy call of duty. Casual gamers don’t go on forums, don’t complain when things are wrong and BLAH.
CoD is an arcade, casual shooter. They come out with new weapons, skins, and maps every year and call it a game and sell it for $60. What a joke.
The last REAL CoD was CoD4, back when CoD was actually fun for the hardcore to play, because it took a little bit of skill to be decent.
Call of Duty is like Madden, the same damn game every year (even though I like Madden, it’s a different story when it comes to a shooter)
I can’t wait for CoD to die…won’t happen in this cycle, but MW4 will die.
Why do you care? Wouldn’t you rather the casual gamer play COD so they stay off the hardcore multiplayer games?
No because those casual gamers are giving a game the fame they don’t deserve. You are obviously a casual gamer from the lack of information you have on the gaming industry. In your previous comment you stated that this “buisness” is all about making money, and that is just not true. Granted that it is for Activision, Treyarch, and I.F. but its not the case for the majority of the devs and publishers. You don’t see that almost every other FPS is trying to have some CoD like feature, and that is not good at all. CoD is ruining the face of FPS’s and I pray for its death.
Really?!?! Haha pls no one put you in charge of a business. Every business’ purpose is to MAKE MONEY. Why do people not understand this? Yes a lot of developers want to make a good game but they are selling it to make a profit and a living. If not they would be non-profit organizations. Casual gamer lol. I buy 10-12 new releases a year and many PSN games while keeping up with gaming news. If that’s casual then yes I am.
@Shalkowski
So COD is ruining the FPS genre? It’s also COD’s fault that everyone won’t do their own thing and instead copy everything that they do?
A good business cares about its customers just as much as it does money. Of course developers want to make money, but a good one’s top priority is to deliver great gaming experiences to players.
Of course you want to make money, but for a lot of devs; that is not their main priority. With Activision, Treyarch, and I.F., that is not the case at all. And Congrats you buy a lot of games, that doesn’t mean anything if you don’t know anything about the devs and publishers that actually make the game.
@Jack Yes they very clearly are running the fps genre. And no its not their fault, its the people that are buying its fault. If no one baught this piece of s*** game, then no one would have any foot steps to compete with, or atleast not as rigorously.
@ATG Yes it is why. And you’re right, it is a lack of creativity. But realize that no one wants to make a game that is original because 1. people are scared and wont buy it and 2. It wont grab the casual gamers attention. People (now) want CoD or something CoD like, and if it isn’t simular, then theres almost no chance of success. Also like I said before, there will always be new generations of unknowlegeable, unexperienced people buying it, mostly because it is so popular.
“No because those casual gamers are giving a game the fame they don’t deserve.”
Is that why?
“You don’t see that almost every other FPS is trying to have some CoD like feature”
And what does that say about every developer that is copying it? Sounds like lack of creativity to me. Props to DICE & Bohemia Interactive for actually doing something different.
COD isn’t killing the FPS genre, if people didn’t want it, they wouldn’t buy it. Simple and plain. If COD failed after COD4, then it would’ve been declining since then.
@Joe
So because COD sells like hot cakes, it’s nothing but casual gamers?
He didn’t say that. He said 10 million casualy gamers buy CoD. There are still lots of hardcore players that buy it. I agree with Joe. How come amazing, innovative games like Batman: Arkham City don’t sell 10+ million copies? Because casual gamers aren’t drawn to them for whatever reason. Then the next stale installment of CoD comes along and casual gamers come by the hundreds to the nearest retailer to get it.
“How come amazing, innovative games like Batman: Arkham City don’t sell 10+ million copies?”
Mass appeal.
“He didn’t say that. He said 10 million casualy gamers buy CoD”
Joe’s got some solid statistics there! I guess Angry Birds selling 50 million DLs so quick doesn’t speak volumes about the game. Or GTA for that matter.
And Matt, stop telling me what people said, I know wtf they said. Who cares if COD sells more than Arkham City? You and I can both agree that Arkham City is an amazing game. My favorite games
1. Skyrim
2. Battlefield 3
3. Batman: Arkham City
My most anticipated game is ArmA 3 so you know I’m not biased towards COD. I take COD for what it is, a fast-paced, arcade shooter. It’s fun, hectic, and a blast with friends. I don’t care if the guns sound real or textures aren’t as sharp as needles. Everybody gripes about these things like COD is the only shooter on the planet or the fact that it sells so much it’s shoved down our throat! COD isn’t the only shooter at the store. Just shut the hell up and play Battlefield or ArmA because both of those games fix the issues you have with COD!
Geez! lol
Mass appeal? You’re telling me that Batman doesn’t have mass appeal? No one’s buying that.
“Joe’s got some solid statistics there! I guess Angry Birds selling 50 million DLs so quick doesn’t speak volumes about the game. Or GTA for that matter.”
Those last 2 sentences are irrelevant. But saying 10 million casual gamers buy CoD isn’t much of a stretch. I’d guess 7 or 8 million.
“And Matt, stop telling me what people said, I know wtf they said.”
Then you wouldn’t have assumed from Joe’s comment that he was saying CoD players are all casual gamers.
P.S. Solid top 3 picks.
I’m with the analyst, I think Black Ops 2 will be COD’s peak.
The analysts said that they think MW3 was CoD’s peak.
@Matt
No they didn’t.
The game will be good, they are taking out grenade launchers completely, getting rid of second chance and death streaks. What I think kills cod is MW3. It was horrible, maps were the same, guns were the same and I got bored of it in a week. Black ops one (other than the tubing and s***) was perfect, it took a bit of skill to snipe and it had a locale only setting to get rid of overseas hosted games. To make it basic, treyarch does a better job than iw and it will be the next modern warfare that will kill everything
“the infamous Michael Pachter” clearly doesnt know what he’s talking about, CoD’s multiplayer was (from Cod 1 – Cod 3) BF1942 simplified. Cod 4 – present = Battlefield 2/2142 but in arcade mode. Any “expert” that doesnt KNOW CoD4′s massively popular and franchise-spawning multiplayer is literally directly stolen from BF2 and the persistent ranking made quicker, with a little bit of Halo’s “jump around infinitely” arcade Quake 3 style shooting. Maybe games experts should try not assuming games werent good before Call Of Duty.
i think black ops 2 will be the peak because to me all the modern warfares suck they woul be better of jst having a trey arch game every 2 years then it wouldnt get so old see trey arch made zombies in WAW something new for a change then infinity ward tries to copy them in both MW2 and MW3 with special ops and survival so if activision comes up with more game modes more stuff i think it wouldnt get so old
also in my opinion BATMAN ARKHAM ASYLUM AND CITY were GREAT GAMES
How can you say the first Modern Warfare sucked? It was by far the best CoD game, and without it, Treyach wouldn’t have even mad WaW (WaW was amazing btw, definitely second best).
This series “Piqued” a long time ago when they took away mod tools and gave up true dedicated servers.The original game was revolutionary and got better to the point of Modern Warfare,anything after that was just fluff.No skills needed to play & plenty of perks & killstreak rerwards along with,Douple XP weekend incentives.They had something great and made it into a multi billion dollar ClusterF*%K.Its too bad too,that other games are following the same approach as this one.No mod tools,no dedi servers and the need to kill off the game in a years time to create a “Brand New” version with little difference of the previous title. The Clincher? The community support & respect that these publishers give back is just as waning as the franchises are becoming.Just a whole lotta fluff for $70 a pop….
When they say it peaked at MW3. Did Activision not announce that Black Ops 2 far exceeded MW3′s numbers in Pre-orders. Let alone remember Call of Duty also has alot of haters who still buy the game even though they trash it. Personally i’m looking forward to Black Ops 2 release.
they’re just realizing this NOW? CoD peaked when they started just tweaking the engine ever game! they need a MAJOR overhaul before i buy one new!
i dont think each cod is a copy and paste of the other. i think treyarch is really trying to be creative with their games, while infinity ward is just taking the same game, putting new maps, new perks, and new weapons and calling it a game. the MW games have all had the same menu style, while black ops on the other hand had mason strapped in a chair looking at the tv as the menu. i have faith in treyarch to deliver a great new game.
I agree, aaron.
And MW3 was the only COD that I didn’t like.